Twins Rotation - 2007

As has been well documented, the Twins face a new challenge in 2007. There are more holes to fill in the starting rotation than in recent years, and I figured I'd share my thoughts. (If you're looking for great, in-depth predictions, check out today's post over at Seth Speaks)

A look at the potential starters for the Twins in 2007:
Johan Santana - Coming off his second Cy Young Award (and what should be his third in a row), Santana shows no signs of slowing down. The only uncertainty about Santana is of whether he'll be around past the end of the 2008 season. Santana is clearly the ace of this staff, and barring injury, he'll be in the Cy Young race in the fall.

Boof Bonser - Last May, I was among the many clamoring for Boof to get a call-up - not only due to his name, but because he dominated in AAA. While I had high hopes for Boof, I certainly didn't expect to be spelling "B-O-O-F" on shirts with some friends at the dome in October as Bonser started game 2 of the ALDS. Boof had a few decent starts in his first stint in the Twins rotation, but was yanked around between the majors and AAA between June and August. Once the Twins gave him a consistent turn in the rotation, he pitched admirably the rest of the way. Bonser seems to be the clear #2 starter for the Twins in 2007.

Carlos Silva - Last season was a train wreck for Silva. Somehow, thanks to injuries to other starters and Gardenhire's apparent fear of inexperience, Silva made 31 starts (second most on the team, behind Santana) and nearly was penciled into the postseason rotation. Silva, known as an effective ground-ball pitcher who lets opponents put the ball in play, had trouble keeping the ball down in '06. Silva's good starts were few and far between, and when he had one, it was ended without warning due to fatigue from base-running or a stomachache. Like many other Twins fans, by the end of the season I was about as far from the Silva bandwagon as possible. I had argued that the Twins shouldn't have picked up Silva's $4.5 million option for this season, but after the obscene amounts of money given to free agent starters this off-season, it looks like a reasonable move. If Silva returns to his pre-2006 form, the Twins have a steal. However, if Silva once again has trouble keeping his ERA below 6.00, I'd hate to see Gardy be as lenient with him as he was last year. The Twins have some young options with tons of potential who should do well if given a shot in the majors. The Twins appear to have penciled him in as the #3 guy, I'd probably put him in the #5 spot, with a very short leash.

Matt Garza - Garza appeared in 10 games and started 9 for the Twins last year. While shaky in his first start against Toronto, he showed significant improvement and had quite a few solid starts the rest of the way. Garza shot through the Twins' minor league system last year, posting a 1.42 ERA in A ball, 2.51 in AA, and 1.85 in AAA. I've heard there is a possibility of Garza starting the season in AAA and not being called up until June, to avoid Garza accumulating a year of major league service time, and therefore becoming arbitration-eligible at season's end. While I like the idea of avoiding arbitration with Garza for an extra year, he is too valuable to the Twins' rotation. I think Garza will open the season as the #4 guy for the Twins, and have a great season, posting an ERA under 4.

Scott Baker - I was very disappointed with the performance of Scott Baker last season. I thought he would follow up a strong rookie season with another solid year in 2006. Baker started 9 games in 2005, posting an amazing ERA of 3.35. In 16 starts in 2006, Baker's ERA rose to 6.37. For whatever reason, Baker struggled to keep the ball down in his big league starts. Perhaps, like Bonser, he was yanked around too much by the organization - even with the Twins, as fifth starters, their starts were often skipped, often leaving them to pitch only once in a 10+ game stretch. In AAA, Baker posted an ERA of only 2.67 - more in line with his previous seasons in AAA and his '05 MLB campaign. I expect Baker to take a step forward this season, and show the consistency that made him a joy to watch pitch in '05. If not, many believe this could be his last chance with the Twins. I think Baker will be the #5 guy, and will exceed expectations.

Glen Perkins - Perkins was called up to the Twins in September, appearing in 4 games and pitching 5.2 innings with a 1.59 ERA. While this is a very small sample, I was at the game he appeared in during the final series of the season against Chicago. Perkins pitched 3.2 very strong innings, at one point retiring ten White Sox in a row. Perkins looked very good, but would probably benefit from some more time in AAA, where he only made one start last year. In AA, Perkins posted a 3.91 ERA, and probably needs a little more time to develop to become a reliable big league starter. I'd love to see another lefty in the Twins rotation this year, and Perkins is the best option to join Santana. I think he'll start the year in AAA, but he'll see some time in the majors if anyone gets hurt.

Kevin Slowey - Slowey was the Twins' second-round pick in the 2005 draft, and like the first-round pick (Garza) has impressed in the minors. Slowey was dominant with a 1.01 ERA in 14 starts at class A Fort Myers, and handled the call-up to AA New Britain well, posting a 3.19 ERA in five starts. Slowey will get a look in spring training, but will likely start the season in the minors. Look for Slowey in 2008, as the Twins build their rotation of the future.

J.D. Durbin - Once touted as "The Real Deal", Durbin has fallen off the radar of many Twins fans. In his lone major league call-up in 2004, Durbin appeared in four games, starting one, with an ERA of 7.36 in 7.1 innings. The following season, Durbin struggled with confidence, but regained some of his top prospect status in 2006. Durbin started 16 games for Rochester last season and likely would have recieved a call-up had his season not been derailed by a nerve problem in his pitching arm. Durbin is out of options this season, and the Twins will likely lose him if he does not make the team out of spring training. Durbin still has great potential, and even if he can't take over the fifth rotation spot, the Twins could use him as Scott Eyre's replacement in the bullpen rather than risk losing him. That, however, could hinge on how the Twins feel about the Venafro/Cali/Choate trio and the possibility of having another lefty out of the bullpen. I am very unsure about Durbin. I'd love to see him stay with the team, either as a starter or reliever. I think he will open the season in the Twins' bullpen, or perhaps the Twins will stash him on the DL as the season begins.

Sidney Ponson - The Twins recently signed Ponson to an incentive-laden, 1-year deal that would be worth between $1 and 3 million if he makes the major league team. Personally, Ponson strikes me as Tony Batista if he were a pitcher. He had some good seasons, but his prime is clearly behind him. The Twins have hope that Rick Anderson can work wonders with him and return him to his 2003, 3.75 ERA form. The good news is that the Twins won't have to pay him much if he doesn't make the team out of spring training. The bad news - Gardy loves to come north with veterans. Personally, I can't see Gardenhire feeling too comfortable with a rotation that boasts only Santana and Silva as vets with more than a year of big league experience. Also, I'm worried that the time Anderson spends with Ponson could take away from the much-needed work that Scott Baker needs. In my mind, Baker is the one that would be more valuable to the 2007 Twins rotation.

A quick glance at the phases of the 2006 Twins rotation

2006 Twins Rotation - April
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Brad Radke (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Kyle Lohse (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)

2006 Twins Rotation - June
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Brad Radke (R)
3. Francisco Liriano (L)
4. Carlos Silva (R)
5. Boof Bonser (R)

2006 Twins Rotation - September
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Matt Garza (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)

2006 Twins Rotation - Postseason
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Brad Radke (R)

2007 Twins Rotation - Projected
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Matt Garza (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)

The uncertainty around the Twins starting rotation in 2007 has many fearing the worst. However, the Twins began the 2006 season with a rotation of Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, and Scott Baker. In the end, ten pitchers started at least one game for the Twins in 2006, and eight started more than seven games. In comparison, I don't think a consistent rotation of Santana, Boof Bonser, Silva, Matt Garza, and an improved Baker looks any worse. Radke struggled terribly through April and May last year, and it can be argued that a full year of Bonser would not be much, if any, of a drop-off. Silva will either improve or be replaced by someone who would be an improvement, Lohse is replaced by Garza, and Baker should improve and show signs of the form that made him reliable in 2005. While it would be great to have Liriano, the Twins can get by with Santana, Silva, and some young but very talented starters.


On an unrelated note, my NFL picks for this weekend:
Indianapolis Colts 20, Baltimore Ravens 17
New Orleans Saints 34, Philadelphia Eagles 20
Chicago Bears 24, Seattle Seahawks 10
San Diego Chargers 30, New England Patriots 27