The Phoenix Suns are one of the most fun-to-watch basketball teams I can remember. And the team that has frustrated me like no other defeated them last night, thanks to a monstrous 44-point showing by Kevin Garnett.
I hope this serves as a wake-up call to the coaching staff, as well as Garnett. When the offense runs thrugh KG, and he allows himself to be more selfish, the Wolves can hang with anybody. With "pass-first KG", the Wolves are a mediocre team. However, if "shoot-first KG" sticks around, we may actually (amazingly) have a contender on our hands.
If yesterday was the start of a trend, that wait for baseball season might not be as bad as I thought.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Monday, January 29, 2007
I Even Miss Silva...
Twins pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers for spring training in 20 days. Not soon enough.
Things have been incredibly slow around the Minnesota sports scene these days, as the only major recent events I can think to make note of are Kevin Garnett's All-Star selection, TwinsFest and Brian Rolston's two-goal, two-assist performance in the NHL All-Star game. While I love watching good pro hockey, the All-Star Game - with no hitting or any real strategy - bores me. Plus, like many others, I had no idea it was on television.
In other news, the Wolves got their first win under "interim" head coach Randy Wittman on Saturday, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers, 101-87. More impressive to me was the way Craig Smith dominated the Sonics on Friday night, scoring 15 first-half points... and then not playing at all in the third quarter. After re-entering the game in the fourth, Smith added 11 more. And of course, the next day, he was rewarded with a whopping 18 minutes.
Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale (I'll put money on that duo as the Strib's next Co-Turkeys of the Year without even knowing what is to come in the next ten months - any takers?) think this team is more talented than they are perceived to be. I agree - but I don't see that talent in Blount, Davis, James, and Hassell like McHale and Taylor do. The talent is buried on the bench - Randy Foye, Craig Smith, and even Bracey Wright deserve more playing time than their veteran counterparts. Add Rashad McCants to that list when he comes back.
The Wolves are too guard heavy, they trust their young talent even less than the Twins, and the front office is delusional. As much as I try, it's tough to see any hope for the near future.
The Wild are exciting but inconsistent. Plus, they only play 2-3 games a week and most of them are at 9 pm. And I don't know enough about hockey. When its playoff time, I'll be tuned in - provided the Twins aren't on.
Super Bowl XLI will be a nice diversion - but there isn't anything there to excite me in the week leading up to the game. Manning and Dungy might choke, Grossman isn't very good - same things I've heard the last three weeks. Some hype...
I NEED the Twins. I wish FSN would cover all of spring training - everything - I'd (seriously) sit and watch some long-toss between Chris Heintz and Scott Baker ahead of watching the mess that is the Wolves. Anything Twins-related except for Mike Redmond's naked batting practice. I could go for a spring training, Twins-Devil Rays, Silva vs. Jae Seo matchup right now.
They say that hope springs eternal. Sadly, spring is still a few weeks away.
Things have been incredibly slow around the Minnesota sports scene these days, as the only major recent events I can think to make note of are Kevin Garnett's All-Star selection, TwinsFest and Brian Rolston's two-goal, two-assist performance in the NHL All-Star game. While I love watching good pro hockey, the All-Star Game - with no hitting or any real strategy - bores me. Plus, like many others, I had no idea it was on television.
In other news, the Wolves got their first win under "interim" head coach Randy Wittman on Saturday, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers, 101-87. More impressive to me was the way Craig Smith dominated the Sonics on Friday night, scoring 15 first-half points... and then not playing at all in the third quarter. After re-entering the game in the fourth, Smith added 11 more. And of course, the next day, he was rewarded with a whopping 18 minutes.
Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale (I'll put money on that duo as the Strib's next Co-Turkeys of the Year without even knowing what is to come in the next ten months - any takers?) think this team is more talented than they are perceived to be. I agree - but I don't see that talent in Blount, Davis, James, and Hassell like McHale and Taylor do. The talent is buried on the bench - Randy Foye, Craig Smith, and even Bracey Wright deserve more playing time than their veteran counterparts. Add Rashad McCants to that list when he comes back.
The Wolves are too guard heavy, they trust their young talent even less than the Twins, and the front office is delusional. As much as I try, it's tough to see any hope for the near future.
The Wild are exciting but inconsistent. Plus, they only play 2-3 games a week and most of them are at 9 pm. And I don't know enough about hockey. When its playoff time, I'll be tuned in - provided the Twins aren't on.
Super Bowl XLI will be a nice diversion - but there isn't anything there to excite me in the week leading up to the game. Manning and Dungy might choke, Grossman isn't very good - same things I've heard the last three weeks. Some hype...
I NEED the Twins. I wish FSN would cover all of spring training - everything - I'd (seriously) sit and watch some long-toss between Chris Heintz and Scott Baker ahead of watching the mess that is the Wolves. Anything Twins-related except for Mike Redmond's naked batting practice. I could go for a spring training, Twins-Devil Rays, Silva vs. Jae Seo matchup right now.
They say that hope springs eternal. Sadly, spring is still a few weeks away.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Twins Batting Order - 2007
What I think we'll see from Gardy on opening day:
1. Castillo, 2B (S)
2. Punto, 3B (S)
3. Mauer, C (L)
4. Cuddyer, RF (R)
5. Morneau, 1B (L)
6. Hunter, CF (R)
7. White, LF (R)
8. Kubel, DH (L)
9. Bartlett, SS (R)
What you'd see from me on opening day:
1. Luis Castillo, 2B (S) - A perfect leadoff hitter for the Twins (I wanted him there over Shannon Stewart at the start of last season) - he takes pitches, has great at-bats, and gets on base.
2. Joe Mauer, C (L) - Hasn't yet developed the power of a #3 hitter. I think putting him second gives us a much better chance to send our power hitters to the plate with runners on base in the first inning. He takes a lot of pitches too, Cuddyer will have seen a lot of the opposing pitcher's stuff by the time he gets to the plate. I'm sure some would argue that more speed belongs in the #2 spot, but don't forget that Mauer has great baserunning skills.
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF (R)
4. Justin Morneau, 1B (L) - He belongs in the cleanup spot. More often than not, he'd bat in the first inning of games - with a runner on base - and give the Twins a great chance to jump ahead.
5. Torii Hunter, CF (R)
6. Rondell White, LF (R) - I struggle with who should bat 6th (White/Kubel) but ultimately I put White there because he will often be pulled for a defensive replacement late in games. I like the L/R/L/R format whenever possible, as it doesn't allow opposing bullpens to bring in a lefty/righty specialist to face many consecutive batters. Also, if White were pulled for a defensive replacement in the 7-spot, it would set up the 4-consecutive-non-power-hitters that we saw so often last year late in games.
7. Jason Kubel, DH (L) - I can't believe how many people are off the Jason Kubel bandwagon. He put up monster numbers in the minors, and looked very promising before his injury. I expect him to be healthy and return to form this year. (Also, when he got regular playing time before his knees acted up this year, he was an RBI machine).
8. Jeff Cirillo, 3B (S) - I thought Cirillo was a great offseason signing for the Twins. He provides insurance for a Punto injury or simply Punto returning to his previous form. Personally, I think Punto will return to his previous form, and Cirillo can be counted on to bat near or above .300. Plus, he kills lefties, hitting them at an obscene .413/.451/.493/.944 clip last year). If only Gardy didn't think a platoon was a kind of boat...
9. Jason Bartlett, SS (R) - In my world, he's a great #9 hitter. In the real world, I expect this spot to belong to Cirillo when Punto fizzles, with Bartlett moving up to the 2-hole. I certainly wouldn't object to that either, but I feel like Mauer fits the #2 role better.
Any thoughts? What changes would you make?
1. Castillo, 2B (S)
2. Punto, 3B (S)
3. Mauer, C (L)
4. Cuddyer, RF (R)
5. Morneau, 1B (L)
6. Hunter, CF (R)
7. White, LF (R)
8. Kubel, DH (L)
9. Bartlett, SS (R)
What you'd see from me on opening day:
1. Luis Castillo, 2B (S) - A perfect leadoff hitter for the Twins (I wanted him there over Shannon Stewart at the start of last season) - he takes pitches, has great at-bats, and gets on base.
2. Joe Mauer, C (L) - Hasn't yet developed the power of a #3 hitter. I think putting him second gives us a much better chance to send our power hitters to the plate with runners on base in the first inning. He takes a lot of pitches too, Cuddyer will have seen a lot of the opposing pitcher's stuff by the time he gets to the plate. I'm sure some would argue that more speed belongs in the #2 spot, but don't forget that Mauer has great baserunning skills.
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF (R)
4. Justin Morneau, 1B (L) - He belongs in the cleanup spot. More often than not, he'd bat in the first inning of games - with a runner on base - and give the Twins a great chance to jump ahead.
5. Torii Hunter, CF (R)
6. Rondell White, LF (R) - I struggle with who should bat 6th (White/Kubel) but ultimately I put White there because he will often be pulled for a defensive replacement late in games. I like the L/R/L/R format whenever possible, as it doesn't allow opposing bullpens to bring in a lefty/righty specialist to face many consecutive batters. Also, if White were pulled for a defensive replacement in the 7-spot, it would set up the 4-consecutive-non-power-hitters that we saw so often last year late in games.
7. Jason Kubel, DH (L) - I can't believe how many people are off the Jason Kubel bandwagon. He put up monster numbers in the minors, and looked very promising before his injury. I expect him to be healthy and return to form this year. (Also, when he got regular playing time before his knees acted up this year, he was an RBI machine).
8. Jeff Cirillo, 3B (S) - I thought Cirillo was a great offseason signing for the Twins. He provides insurance for a Punto injury or simply Punto returning to his previous form. Personally, I think Punto will return to his previous form, and Cirillo can be counted on to bat near or above .300. Plus, he kills lefties, hitting them at an obscene .413/.451/.493/.944 clip last year). If only Gardy didn't think a platoon was a kind of boat...
9. Jason Bartlett, SS (R) - In my world, he's a great #9 hitter. In the real world, I expect this spot to belong to Cirillo when Punto fizzles, with Bartlett moving up to the 2-hole. I certainly wouldn't object to that either, but I feel like Mauer fits the #2 role better.
Any thoughts? What changes would you make?
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
An Injustice Indeed
I usually stick strictly to sports around here, but this is definitely worthy of mention.
I'm short on time, as I have an 8:00 class tomorrow morning, so this will be much shorter than this topic deserves.
I got back from playing some pick-up basketball around 10:30 this evening, showered, and - as is force of habit - logged on to espn.com. The front page contains this article. I encourage you to read it for yourself, as I'd rather you read it there than risk missing a detail in a short summary here.
The compelling article tells the story of Genarlow Wilson, once a star athlete and honor roll student at his high school in Douglasville, Georgia. Wilson is now serving a ten-year prison term (without possibility of parole) for receiving consensual oral sex from a 15-year-old when he was 17. The girl and prosecutors admitted it was consensual from the start. He stood trial on rape and aggravated child molestation charges, and was found not guilty to the former, guilty to the latter. In Georgia, aggravated child molestation carries a minimum penalty of ten years in prison without a chance for parole. That was how the courts punished Wilson, following the wording but not the intent of the law.
The law has since been changed, but it was not implemented retroactively, so Wilson is still in prison. Wilson's case has been before the Georgia Supreme Court, comprised of four Caucasians and three African-Americans. In a vote that could have gotten Wilson out of jail, the vote was 4-3 against. Sadly, I probably don't need to spell out which members voted for and against. Also, as is later stated in the article, a white high school teacher was found guilty of having a sexual relationship with a student - and received only 90 days in prison.
After reading this article, one week after Martin Luther King Jr. Day, I felt angry and ashamed for our society. I am sickened that - over 140 years since the abolition of slavery and nearly 40 years past King's death - some people (worse yet, people in power) still don't get it.
I'm a white kid from a predominantly white hometown, and I go to a school that I would guess is about 95% white. I've been pretty shielded from this stuff (though I have seen it in person), and though (sadly) I wasn't terribly surprised, I was appalled to see something like this.
My first crack at writing on something other than sports around here, and I know this is a touchy subject. I truly hope to have done it some justice.
And once again - if you haven't yet, read the article. I don't want you to miss anything I've left out here.
"So we keep waiting, waiting on the world to change" - John Mayer
I'm short on time, as I have an 8:00 class tomorrow morning, so this will be much shorter than this topic deserves.
I got back from playing some pick-up basketball around 10:30 this evening, showered, and - as is force of habit - logged on to espn.com. The front page contains this article. I encourage you to read it for yourself, as I'd rather you read it there than risk missing a detail in a short summary here.
The compelling article tells the story of Genarlow Wilson, once a star athlete and honor roll student at his high school in Douglasville, Georgia. Wilson is now serving a ten-year prison term (without possibility of parole) for receiving consensual oral sex from a 15-year-old when he was 17. The girl and prosecutors admitted it was consensual from the start. He stood trial on rape and aggravated child molestation charges, and was found not guilty to the former, guilty to the latter. In Georgia, aggravated child molestation carries a minimum penalty of ten years in prison without a chance for parole. That was how the courts punished Wilson, following the wording but not the intent of the law.
The law has since been changed, but it was not implemented retroactively, so Wilson is still in prison. Wilson's case has been before the Georgia Supreme Court, comprised of four Caucasians and three African-Americans. In a vote that could have gotten Wilson out of jail, the vote was 4-3 against. Sadly, I probably don't need to spell out which members voted for and against. Also, as is later stated in the article, a white high school teacher was found guilty of having a sexual relationship with a student - and received only 90 days in prison.
After reading this article, one week after Martin Luther King Jr. Day, I felt angry and ashamed for our society. I am sickened that - over 140 years since the abolition of slavery and nearly 40 years past King's death - some people (worse yet, people in power) still don't get it.
I'm a white kid from a predominantly white hometown, and I go to a school that I would guess is about 95% white. I've been pretty shielded from this stuff (though I have seen it in person), and though (sadly) I wasn't terribly surprised, I was appalled to see something like this.
My first crack at writing on something other than sports around here, and I know this is a touchy subject. I truly hope to have done it some justice.
And once again - if you haven't yet, read the article. I don't want you to miss anything I've left out here.
"So we keep waiting, waiting on the world to change" - John Mayer
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
They Fired the Wrong Guy
The Minnesota Timberwolves fired Dwane Casey today, and have appointed Randy Wittman as the new head coach. I've never been much of a Casey fan, but with the talent Kevin McHale has given him, I don't think 20-20 this year is bad at all. I don't remember seeing anybody picking the Timberwolves to make the playoffs before the season began, and Casey has them in a playoff spot. I've disagreed with some of Casey's in-game decisions and would like to see Randy Foye and Craig Smith get some more minutes, but I don't think there's any question the team has played better than the talent they have. I have hope for Wittman, but Casey was fired without much reason.
The wrong guy was fired today. Casey had very little chance to do better, as McHale has assembled a pitiful team for him to work with.
Check out this poll on startribune.com. At the time of this writing, 69% of Minnesota fans think McHale should be gone.
UPDATE: I just heard this on the Sludge & Lake show on KFAN and I agree wholeheartedly: If McHale hadn't blown two first-round picks in the Cassell and Szczerbiak deals, Allen Iverson would be a Timberwolf and Casey would still have a job.
The wrong guy was fired today. Casey had very little chance to do better, as McHale has assembled a pitiful team for him to work with.
Check out this poll on startribune.com. At the time of this writing, 69% of Minnesota fans think McHale should be gone.
UPDATE: I just heard this on the Sludge & Lake show on KFAN and I agree wholeheartedly: If McHale hadn't blown two first-round picks in the Cassell and Szczerbiak deals, Allen Iverson would be a Timberwolf and Casey would still have a job.
Monday, January 22, 2007
We Could Do Better
It's been very slow lately around Major League Baseball, so slow that the Twins signing of Ramon Ortiz graces the front page of mlb.com as I write this. There is also an article on the most prominent players still available in free agency. Tony Armas, Steve Trachsel, and Tomo Ohka jump out at me as guys that would have given us something better than Ortiz at a similar cost. Then again, somebody from the Garza-Baker-Perkins-Durbin group could give us better at a better price.
Classes started at UWEC today - I'm not quite sure yet of how this will affect the frequency or length of my posts here, but I'll try to continue to update when I can.
Classes started at UWEC today - I'm not quite sure yet of how this will affect the frequency or length of my posts here, but I'll try to continue to update when I can.
Friday, January 19, 2007
I Don't Like This At All
The Twins are reportedly close to signing right-hander Ramon Ortiz to a one-year, $3.1 million deal that is contingent on his passing a physical.
Last year, Ortiz posted a 5.57 ERA in a pitchers park (RFK) in the National League. I don't know the exact translation, but I'm pretty certain that equates to something around or above 6 in the AL.
Until today, I thought Terry Ryan and Gardy had learned from their mistakes, and would start to give the youngsters a shot. I was wrong.
The way I see it, the opening day rotation will most likely be Santana-Bonser-Silva-Ortiz-Ponson. If that doesn't send shudders down your spine, you must have much more faith in Rick Anderson than I do. (Even if Anderson can fix these guys, I'd still rather have him work with Garza, Perkins, Baker, Slowey, etc. and see some of them in the rotation)
Maybe the plan is like last year. A 25-33 start before cutting the dead weight and playing .700 ball the rest of the way. But I don't think that works two years in a row.
Going into a 3-game series, it's possible that an opponent will face Silva, Ortiz, and Ponson as starting pitchers. If the Twins skip the fifth starter when possible (barring injuries), look out for May 21-23 at Texas, where many home runs will be hit. If they don't skip the fifth guy, doom and gloom comes even earlier, May 8-10 against Chicago at the dome. Sadly, I'll be at school in Eau Claire, not collecting Jim Thome balls while eating dollar dogs in the cheap seats.
My apologies for the rant, but needless to say, I'm much less optomistic about the Twins 2007 season now than I was when I predicted this starting rotation.
UPDATE: That may not even be the worst of it. In signing Ortiz, the Twins had to make room for him on the 40-man roster. They cut loose Alex Romero, a 23-year old AAA outfielder, who projects to be a reliable backup outfielder and perhaps even a solid starter. I'd actually rather have him on the big club than Lew.
Last year, Ortiz posted a 5.57 ERA in a pitchers park (RFK) in the National League. I don't know the exact translation, but I'm pretty certain that equates to something around or above 6 in the AL.
Until today, I thought Terry Ryan and Gardy had learned from their mistakes, and would start to give the youngsters a shot. I was wrong.
The way I see it, the opening day rotation will most likely be Santana-Bonser-Silva-Ortiz-Ponson. If that doesn't send shudders down your spine, you must have much more faith in Rick Anderson than I do. (Even if Anderson can fix these guys, I'd still rather have him work with Garza, Perkins, Baker, Slowey, etc. and see some of them in the rotation)
Maybe the plan is like last year. A 25-33 start before cutting the dead weight and playing .700 ball the rest of the way. But I don't think that works two years in a row.
Going into a 3-game series, it's possible that an opponent will face Silva, Ortiz, and Ponson as starting pitchers. If the Twins skip the fifth starter when possible (barring injuries), look out for May 21-23 at Texas, where many home runs will be hit. If they don't skip the fifth guy, doom and gloom comes even earlier, May 8-10 against Chicago at the dome. Sadly, I'll be at school in Eau Claire, not collecting Jim Thome balls while eating dollar dogs in the cheap seats.
My apologies for the rant, but needless to say, I'm much less optomistic about the Twins 2007 season now than I was when I predicted this starting rotation.
UPDATE: That may not even be the worst of it. In signing Ortiz, the Twins had to make room for him on the 40-man roster. They cut loose Alex Romero, a 23-year old AAA outfielder, who projects to be a reliable backup outfielder and perhaps even a solid starter. I'd actually rather have him on the big club than Lew.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
(Not so) Hot Stove Report
There hasn't been much news to report around Major League Baseball the last few days, except for a few stories that I expect will mean nothing a few months from now:
SAMMY SOSA AGREES ON A DEAL WITH TEXAS
Sammy Sosa and the Texas Rangers agreed on a minor league contract worth $500,000 plus incentives. Sosa, with 588 career home runs, was terrible in 2005 with the Baltimore Orioles, and didn't play in 2006. I don't see the 38-year-old Sosa making the team out of spring training, but I'd say he at least has more upside than Tony Batista did for the Twins last year. If he does make the team, he could put up good power numbers, as the ball flied out of Ameriquest field, but I don't expect him to hit any higher than .250 or play anywhere other than DH.
BARRY BONDS SAYS ROSE AND MCGWIRE ARE HALL-WORTHY
Hmm... Bonds thinks a guy who broke the rules by betting on baseball and a guy who probably used steroids should be allowed in the Hall. Think he's trying to pave the way for somebody else who broke the rules by using performance-enhancing substances?
BONDS TO RED SOX?
This seems ridiculous to me, but many are saying that the Giants may back away from the deal they agreed upon in principle with Bonds. The Red Sox face a similar situation, in that they may back away from a deal agreed upon with J.D. Drew. The Sox outfield defense would certainly struggle with both Bonds and Manny Ramirez, but this is interesting because it would form - arguably - the most powerful heart of the order in baseball history. Ortiz, followed by Ramirez, followed by Bonds... incredible protection for each of the three. But honestly, can anybody really see it? I fully expect Bonds to be in a Giants uniform once again next year.
I'll also take this opportunity to plug my favorite non-Twin, Wily Mo Pena. Boston would be just fine without Drew, as they already have a right fielder with great power (.301/.349/.489/.838 last year), who by many accounts just needs the at-bats and experience to become a better hitter. Yes, this would also hurt their outfield defense, so once again Pena will be the 4th outfielder, just as he was in Cincinnati.
A story that actually will have some effect on the 2007 MLB season:
LAROCHE TO PITTSBURGH, GONZALEZ TO ATLANTA
Adam LaRoche may be the most underrated player in baseball. I had no idea, until I looked at his stats, that he hit 32 HR with a .915 OPS last season. Mike Gonzalez took over as closer for Pittsburgh last year and converted all 24 of his save opportunities. I'm not sure if I should be surprised or not that this deal didn't get more coverage - it has been rumored since the winter meetings, but doesn't involve a New York team, so ESPN isn't interested. The teams also swapped prospects who spent last year in A-ball - OF Jamie Romak going to Pittsburgh and SS Brent Lillibridge going to Atlanta. Romak is 21 and has some power, and Lillibridge is a 23-year-old speedster (a little old for A-ball) who swiped 53 bags last year between low- and high-A.
I'm from the school of thought that most closers are overrated (Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, and Trevor Hoffman being exceptions), and that most teams can find a serviceable option among their other relievers. Add to that the fact that Atlanta doesn't need a closer (they already have Bob Wickman), and I'd say Pittsburgh got the better of the deal. Atlanta did need some bullpen help, but I don't think it's worth giving up a 30+ HR guy just entering the prime of his career.
OTHER NEWS
SAMMY SOSA AGREES ON A DEAL WITH TEXAS
Sammy Sosa and the Texas Rangers agreed on a minor league contract worth $500,000 plus incentives. Sosa, with 588 career home runs, was terrible in 2005 with the Baltimore Orioles, and didn't play in 2006. I don't see the 38-year-old Sosa making the team out of spring training, but I'd say he at least has more upside than Tony Batista did for the Twins last year. If he does make the team, he could put up good power numbers, as the ball flied out of Ameriquest field, but I don't expect him to hit any higher than .250 or play anywhere other than DH.
BARRY BONDS SAYS ROSE AND MCGWIRE ARE HALL-WORTHY
Hmm... Bonds thinks a guy who broke the rules by betting on baseball and a guy who probably used steroids should be allowed in the Hall. Think he's trying to pave the way for somebody else who broke the rules by using performance-enhancing substances?
BONDS TO RED SOX?
This seems ridiculous to me, but many are saying that the Giants may back away from the deal they agreed upon in principle with Bonds. The Red Sox face a similar situation, in that they may back away from a deal agreed upon with J.D. Drew. The Sox outfield defense would certainly struggle with both Bonds and Manny Ramirez, but this is interesting because it would form - arguably - the most powerful heart of the order in baseball history. Ortiz, followed by Ramirez, followed by Bonds... incredible protection for each of the three. But honestly, can anybody really see it? I fully expect Bonds to be in a Giants uniform once again next year.
I'll also take this opportunity to plug my favorite non-Twin, Wily Mo Pena. Boston would be just fine without Drew, as they already have a right fielder with great power (.301/.349/.489/.838 last year), who by many accounts just needs the at-bats and experience to become a better hitter. Yes, this would also hurt their outfield defense, so once again Pena will be the 4th outfielder, just as he was in Cincinnati.
A story that actually will have some effect on the 2007 MLB season:
LAROCHE TO PITTSBURGH, GONZALEZ TO ATLANTA
Adam LaRoche may be the most underrated player in baseball. I had no idea, until I looked at his stats, that he hit 32 HR with a .915 OPS last season. Mike Gonzalez took over as closer for Pittsburgh last year and converted all 24 of his save opportunities. I'm not sure if I should be surprised or not that this deal didn't get more coverage - it has been rumored since the winter meetings, but doesn't involve a New York team, so ESPN isn't interested. The teams also swapped prospects who spent last year in A-ball - OF Jamie Romak going to Pittsburgh and SS Brent Lillibridge going to Atlanta. Romak is 21 and has some power, and Lillibridge is a 23-year-old speedster (a little old for A-ball) who swiped 53 bags last year between low- and high-A.
I'm from the school of thought that most closers are overrated (Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, and Trevor Hoffman being exceptions), and that most teams can find a serviceable option among their other relievers. Add to that the fact that Atlanta doesn't need a closer (they already have Bob Wickman), and I'd say Pittsburgh got the better of the deal. Atlanta did need some bullpen help, but I don't think it's worth giving up a 30+ HR guy just entering the prime of his career.
OTHER NEWS
- In former Twin news, Eddie Guardado is close to a minor league deal with the Reds (who could probably be known as the Former-Twins).
- A guy I'd like to see take a roster spot from Lew Ford or Jason Tyner - 33-year-old North Dakotan Darin Erstad - has been offered a minor league deal by Oakland.
- Shannon Stewart could be headed to his home state of Florida to play for the Marlins, though the team has some concerns about his foot.
- The Twins have expressed interest in a minor league contract with Ramon Ortiz, who reportedly could go back to Washington on a one-year, $2.5 million deal.
- Another name the Twins have been linked to, Tomo Ohka, is said to be holding out for a three-year deal. There are reportedly at least three teams interested, and I'd be very suprised if the Twins were willing to give any more than a minor league or one-year contract.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Twins Sign LeCroy
The Twins brought back designated hitter Matthew LeCroy on a minor league contract yesterday (as found in the "Welcome Back" section near the bottom of this article). Before playing last season in Washington, LeCroy had spent his entire career in the Twins organization.
I like this signing, for the exact same reasons I suggested the Twins bring back Phil Nevin. If he makes the team, LeCroy gives a powerful bat off the bench, as well as an emergency catcher (as long as he can avoid making managers cry).
In addition, LeCroy will definitely pose no harm to team chemistry, as he was considered a clubhouse clown and was loved by teammates in his previous stint with the team.
I like this signing, for the exact same reasons I suggested the Twins bring back Phil Nevin. If he makes the team, LeCroy gives a powerful bat off the bench, as well as an emergency catcher (as long as he can avoid making managers cry).
In addition, LeCroy will definitely pose no harm to team chemistry, as he was considered a clubhouse clown and was loved by teammates in his previous stint with the team.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
The Season That Was
Twins pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers 33 days from now, on February 18. Ten days later, the Twins play their first exhibition game of the spring against Boston. Between now and then, I'll share my thoughts on the season that was - and maybe ease some of my regrets about not blogging last season.
The First Installment: Overview
I attended 16 games at the dome in 2006, the most I've been to in a single season. The first was the April 14 series-opening win over the Yankees, the last was the Game 2 ALDS loss to Oakland. I watched the spring training opener against Boston and season opener against Toronto from my dorm room in Eau Claire, and heard about the season-ending loss to Oakland while visiting a friend at Notre Dame. I'd estimate that I either attended, listened to, or watched at least 140 games this year, and plan on sharing my thoughts on some of the most memorable.
The First Installment: Overview
I attended 16 games at the dome in 2006, the most I've been to in a single season. The first was the April 14 series-opening win over the Yankees, the last was the Game 2 ALDS loss to Oakland. I watched the spring training opener against Boston and season opener against Toronto from my dorm room in Eau Claire, and heard about the season-ending loss to Oakland while visiting a friend at Notre Dame. I'd estimate that I either attended, listened to, or watched at least 140 games this year, and plan on sharing my thoughts on some of the most memorable.
Monday, January 15, 2007
Who?
ESPN's Joe Schad reports that the Gophers have signed Denver Broncos tight ends coach Tim Brewster as their next head coach.
Brewster is a relative unknown with no previous head coaching experience. In 2004, he was considered for the Illinois job that eventually went to Ron Zook. A profile of his candidacy for that job is available at scout.com.
As I write this post, a Google news search for '"Tim Brewster" Minnesota' only yields one result. Brewster's name has rarely been mentioned in connection with this job, one that I hoped would go to Paul Chryst or Lane Kiffin. While he sounds like a good recruiter from what I've read, all there is to do at this point is hope for the best.
UPDATE (8:30 PM): 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS and KARE 11 say the U of M is denying that the job has been offered to anyone yet.
UPDATE (Tuesday): The U of M now confirms the reports, and will announce the hiring Wednesday afternoon.
Brewster is a relative unknown with no previous head coaching experience. In 2004, he was considered for the Illinois job that eventually went to Ron Zook. A profile of his candidacy for that job is available at scout.com.
As I write this post, a Google news search for '"Tim Brewster" Minnesota' only yields one result. Brewster's name has rarely been mentioned in connection with this job, one that I hoped would go to Paul Chryst or Lane Kiffin. While he sounds like a good recruiter from what I've read, all there is to do at this point is hope for the best.
UPDATE (8:30 PM): 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS and KARE 11 say the U of M is denying that the job has been offered to anyone yet.
UPDATE (Tuesday): The U of M now confirms the reports, and will announce the hiring Wednesday afternoon.
Ah, Homophones...
I found this yesterday and wish I had posted it then, because it has since been fixed. So instead, I link to a Google News search, where the headline is saved as the original. If that link no longer works, I'll just cut to the chase. I read a headline on startribune.com yesterday that read: "Illinois man peddles stationary bike for 85 hours". It has since been changed to read: "Illinois man pedals stationary bike for 85 hours".
When I stumbled upon this yesterday, I did think it seemed more likely (although much less newsworthy) that a man would try to sell a stationary bike for 85 consecutive hours than ride it for as long.
Of course, the headline has since been fixed, but it was like that on startribune.com for at least an hour yesterday. I'm wondering - since it was an AP story - who wrote that headline? Was it someone from the Strib? How didn't an editor catch it? Didn't I learn the difference between pedaling and peddling in elementary school? Ah, homophones... at least he wasn't peddling a stationery bike.
When I stumbled upon this yesterday, I did think it seemed more likely (although much less newsworthy) that a man would try to sell a stationary bike for 85 consecutive hours than ride it for as long.
Of course, the headline has since been fixed, but it was like that on startribune.com for at least an hour yesterday. I'm wondering - since it was an AP story - who wrote that headline? Was it someone from the Strib? How didn't an editor catch it? Didn't I learn the difference between pedaling and peddling in elementary school? Ah, homophones... at least he wasn't peddling a stationery bike.
Jaric Leaving Town?
The Star Tribune's Steve Aschburner reports this morning that the Timberwolves are working on a deal that would send one of Kevin McHale's biggest mistakes to Detroit. In return for Jaric, the Wolves would recieve one of three Detroit big men - Nazr Mohammed, Antonio McDyess, or Dale Davis. Aschburner states that the salaries match up best between Jaric and either Mohammed or McDyess, so Davis is the least likely to be traded.
I began reading the article with some optimism, hoping that maybe getting rid of Jaric was the first step in climbing out of this hole that McHale has dug. Mohammed and McDyess both make between $5 and 6 million, but McDyess is only under contract through 2007-08. Mohammed on the other hand, is in the first year of a 5-year deal with Detroit. So the logical move would be to go for McDyess... and therefore McHale's move will be to bring in Mohammed, yet another big man who can't rebound with an enormous contract (see Olowokandi, Michael; Blount, Mark; and Madsen, Mark). And Detroit can have a first round pick while we're at it.
Jaric has reportedly asked for a trade, so he'll most likely be leaving Minnesota soon, but I hope it's not in a Jaric-for-Mohammed deal. I'd happily welcome McDyess, although it would mean even less minutes for my favorite underused Wolf this season, Craig Smith. Detroit is desperate to move a big man soon, to make way for Chris Webber, but here's my plea to McHale:
Whatever you do, please don't saddle us with the contract of Nazr Mohammed. Or trade another first-round pick.
I began reading the article with some optimism, hoping that maybe getting rid of Jaric was the first step in climbing out of this hole that McHale has dug. Mohammed and McDyess both make between $5 and 6 million, but McDyess is only under contract through 2007-08. Mohammed on the other hand, is in the first year of a 5-year deal with Detroit. So the logical move would be to go for McDyess... and therefore McHale's move will be to bring in Mohammed, yet another big man who can't rebound with an enormous contract (see Olowokandi, Michael; Blount, Mark; and Madsen, Mark). And Detroit can have a first round pick while we're at it.
Jaric has reportedly asked for a trade, so he'll most likely be leaving Minnesota soon, but I hope it's not in a Jaric-for-Mohammed deal. I'd happily welcome McDyess, although it would mean even less minutes for my favorite underused Wolf this season, Craig Smith. Detroit is desperate to move a big man soon, to make way for Chris Webber, but here's my plea to McHale:
Whatever you do, please don't saddle us with the contract of Nazr Mohammed. Or trade another first-round pick.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Bring Back Nevin?
Phil Nevin wasn't the most popular player on the Twins during his September stint with the team, and he didn't perform particularly well (.190 with 15 strikeouts in 42 at bats). Though he didn't have much success, Nevin enjoyed his stay with the team, and has publicly stated that he'd like to come back. However, with the Twins signing of 1B/DH Ken Harvey in December, it seems very unlikely that he'll be re-signed. I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but I'd like to make a case for Nevin's return to the Twins.
Nevin only hit .190 in his 16 games with the Twins, but posted a respectable OBP of .340. The Twins actually went 13-3 in games that Nevin appeared in, and he reached base in all but one of the games he started. Nevin also provides a power threat off the bench that the Twins have lacked. Last season, the Twins often played batters with no power in the 7th-2nd spots in the order. These are all from a very small sample, and Ken Harvey or others could probably fill those needs, but the biggest reason for bringing Nevin back is that I believe it would make Joe Mauer even better.
Through July 24, Mauer was batting .380. From that point on, Mauer batted .294. While .294 is still a very good batting average, it seemed clear that catching almost every day was taking a toll on Mauer. The Twins have a great backup in Mike Redmond, and it is possible to use him to give Mauer a rest without taking Mauer's offensive production out of the lineup. Ron Gardenhire, however, has an irrational fear of putting both catchers in the linup at the same time.
The logic is that if the starting catcher would get hurt, the catcher at DH would have to move behind the plate, and the Twins would have to forfeit the DH for the remainder of the game and send the pitcher up in his place. Now, the odds that any player will get hurt and need to be taken out of the game are slim enough. Now think of the odds that the starting catcher would get hurt early enough in a game that a pitcher would be sent to the plate for a significant number of at bats. And even if he were, who says it would cost us the game? Gardy, of all managers, should know it wouldn't. He started Juan Castro in 48 games last year, which is just like sending a pitcher to the plate for 156 at-bats.
All joking aside, could you imagine the spike Mauer's late-season production would have if he and Redmond split time behind the plate, with Mauer DH'ing the other half of the time? Enter Phil Nevin. Nevin has some catching experience, making him the emergency catcher if the starter were to go down. Just like that, Gardy's irrational fear of losing the DH would be put to rest.
I'm sure its not something we'll ever actually see from the Twins, but doesn't it seem worth giving it a look?
NOTE: As I've been trying to start up the next great Twins blog, I've noticed quite a few that are already great. One more that I suggest you check out: Twins Junkie
Nevin only hit .190 in his 16 games with the Twins, but posted a respectable OBP of .340. The Twins actually went 13-3 in games that Nevin appeared in, and he reached base in all but one of the games he started. Nevin also provides a power threat off the bench that the Twins have lacked. Last season, the Twins often played batters with no power in the 7th-2nd spots in the order. These are all from a very small sample, and Ken Harvey or others could probably fill those needs, but the biggest reason for bringing Nevin back is that I believe it would make Joe Mauer even better.
Through July 24, Mauer was batting .380. From that point on, Mauer batted .294. While .294 is still a very good batting average, it seemed clear that catching almost every day was taking a toll on Mauer. The Twins have a great backup in Mike Redmond, and it is possible to use him to give Mauer a rest without taking Mauer's offensive production out of the lineup. Ron Gardenhire, however, has an irrational fear of putting both catchers in the linup at the same time.
The logic is that if the starting catcher would get hurt, the catcher at DH would have to move behind the plate, and the Twins would have to forfeit the DH for the remainder of the game and send the pitcher up in his place. Now, the odds that any player will get hurt and need to be taken out of the game are slim enough. Now think of the odds that the starting catcher would get hurt early enough in a game that a pitcher would be sent to the plate for a significant number of at bats. And even if he were, who says it would cost us the game? Gardy, of all managers, should know it wouldn't. He started Juan Castro in 48 games last year, which is just like sending a pitcher to the plate for 156 at-bats.
All joking aside, could you imagine the spike Mauer's late-season production would have if he and Redmond split time behind the plate, with Mauer DH'ing the other half of the time? Enter Phil Nevin. Nevin has some catching experience, making him the emergency catcher if the starter were to go down. Just like that, Gardy's irrational fear of losing the DH would be put to rest.
I'm sure its not something we'll ever actually see from the Twins, but doesn't it seem worth giving it a look?
NOTE: As I've been trying to start up the next great Twins blog, I've noticed quite a few that are already great. One more that I suggest you check out: Twins Junkie
Friday, January 12, 2007
Twins Rotation - 2007
As has been well documented, the Twins face a new challenge in 2007. There are more holes to fill in the starting rotation than in recent years, and I figured I'd share my thoughts. (If you're looking for great, in-depth predictions, check out today's post over at Seth Speaks)
A look at the potential starters for the Twins in 2007:
Johan Santana - Coming off his second Cy Young Award (and what should be his third in a row), Santana shows no signs of slowing down. The only uncertainty about Santana is of whether he'll be around past the end of the 2008 season. Santana is clearly the ace of this staff, and barring injury, he'll be in the Cy Young race in the fall.
Boof Bonser - Last May, I was among the many clamoring for Boof to get a call-up - not only due to his name, but because he dominated in AAA. While I had high hopes for Boof, I certainly didn't expect to be spelling "B-O-O-F" on shirts with some friends at the dome in October as Bonser started game 2 of the ALDS. Boof had a few decent starts in his first stint in the Twins rotation, but was yanked around between the majors and AAA between June and August. Once the Twins gave him a consistent turn in the rotation, he pitched admirably the rest of the way. Bonser seems to be the clear #2 starter for the Twins in 2007.
Carlos Silva - Last season was a train wreck for Silva. Somehow, thanks to injuries to other starters and Gardenhire's apparent fear of inexperience, Silva made 31 starts (second most on the team, behind Santana) and nearly was penciled into the postseason rotation. Silva, known as an effective ground-ball pitcher who lets opponents put the ball in play, had trouble keeping the ball down in '06. Silva's good starts were few and far between, and when he had one, it was ended without warning due to fatigue from base-running or a stomachache. Like many other Twins fans, by the end of the season I was about as far from the Silva bandwagon as possible. I had argued that the Twins shouldn't have picked up Silva's $4.5 million option for this season, but after the obscene amounts of money given to free agent starters this off-season, it looks like a reasonable move. If Silva returns to his pre-2006 form, the Twins have a steal. However, if Silva once again has trouble keeping his ERA below 6.00, I'd hate to see Gardy be as lenient with him as he was last year. The Twins have some young options with tons of potential who should do well if given a shot in the majors. The Twins appear to have penciled him in as the #3 guy, I'd probably put him in the #5 spot, with a very short leash.
Matt Garza - Garza appeared in 10 games and started 9 for the Twins last year. While shaky in his first start against Toronto, he showed significant improvement and had quite a few solid starts the rest of the way. Garza shot through the Twins' minor league system last year, posting a 1.42 ERA in A ball, 2.51 in AA, and 1.85 in AAA. I've heard there is a possibility of Garza starting the season in AAA and not being called up until June, to avoid Garza accumulating a year of major league service time, and therefore becoming arbitration-eligible at season's end. While I like the idea of avoiding arbitration with Garza for an extra year, he is too valuable to the Twins' rotation. I think Garza will open the season as the #4 guy for the Twins, and have a great season, posting an ERA under 4.
Scott Baker - I was very disappointed with the performance of Scott Baker last season. I thought he would follow up a strong rookie season with another solid year in 2006. Baker started 9 games in 2005, posting an amazing ERA of 3.35. In 16 starts in 2006, Baker's ERA rose to 6.37. For whatever reason, Baker struggled to keep the ball down in his big league starts. Perhaps, like Bonser, he was yanked around too much by the organization - even with the Twins, as fifth starters, their starts were often skipped, often leaving them to pitch only once in a 10+ game stretch. In AAA, Baker posted an ERA of only 2.67 - more in line with his previous seasons in AAA and his '05 MLB campaign. I expect Baker to take a step forward this season, and show the consistency that made him a joy to watch pitch in '05. If not, many believe this could be his last chance with the Twins. I think Baker will be the #5 guy, and will exceed expectations.
Glen Perkins - Perkins was called up to the Twins in September, appearing in 4 games and pitching 5.2 innings with a 1.59 ERA. While this is a very small sample, I was at the game he appeared in during the final series of the season against Chicago. Perkins pitched 3.2 very strong innings, at one point retiring ten White Sox in a row. Perkins looked very good, but would probably benefit from some more time in AAA, where he only made one start last year. In AA, Perkins posted a 3.91 ERA, and probably needs a little more time to develop to become a reliable big league starter. I'd love to see another lefty in the Twins rotation this year, and Perkins is the best option to join Santana. I think he'll start the year in AAA, but he'll see some time in the majors if anyone gets hurt.
Kevin Slowey - Slowey was the Twins' second-round pick in the 2005 draft, and like the first-round pick (Garza) has impressed in the minors. Slowey was dominant with a 1.01 ERA in 14 starts at class A Fort Myers, and handled the call-up to AA New Britain well, posting a 3.19 ERA in five starts. Slowey will get a look in spring training, but will likely start the season in the minors. Look for Slowey in 2008, as the Twins build their rotation of the future.
J.D. Durbin - Once touted as "The Real Deal", Durbin has fallen off the radar of many Twins fans. In his lone major league call-up in 2004, Durbin appeared in four games, starting one, with an ERA of 7.36 in 7.1 innings. The following season, Durbin struggled with confidence, but regained some of his top prospect status in 2006. Durbin started 16 games for Rochester last season and likely would have recieved a call-up had his season not been derailed by a nerve problem in his pitching arm. Durbin is out of options this season, and the Twins will likely lose him if he does not make the team out of spring training. Durbin still has great potential, and even if he can't take over the fifth rotation spot, the Twins could use him as Scott Eyre's replacement in the bullpen rather than risk losing him. That, however, could hinge on how the Twins feel about the Venafro/Cali/Choate trio and the possibility of having another lefty out of the bullpen. I am very unsure about Durbin. I'd love to see him stay with the team, either as a starter or reliever. I think he will open the season in the Twins' bullpen, or perhaps the Twins will stash him on the DL as the season begins.
Sidney Ponson - The Twins recently signed Ponson to an incentive-laden, 1-year deal that would be worth between $1 and 3 million if he makes the major league team. Personally, Ponson strikes me as Tony Batista if he were a pitcher. He had some good seasons, but his prime is clearly behind him. The Twins have hope that Rick Anderson can work wonders with him and return him to his 2003, 3.75 ERA form. The good news is that the Twins won't have to pay him much if he doesn't make the team out of spring training. The bad news - Gardy loves to come north with veterans. Personally, I can't see Gardenhire feeling too comfortable with a rotation that boasts only Santana and Silva as vets with more than a year of big league experience. Also, I'm worried that the time Anderson spends with Ponson could take away from the much-needed work that Scott Baker needs. In my mind, Baker is the one that would be more valuable to the 2007 Twins rotation.
A quick glance at the phases of the 2006 Twins rotation
2006 Twins Rotation - April
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Brad Radke (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Kyle Lohse (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)
2006 Twins Rotation - June
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Brad Radke (R)
3. Francisco Liriano (L)
4. Carlos Silva (R)
5. Boof Bonser (R)
2006 Twins Rotation - September
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Matt Garza (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)
2006 Twins Rotation - Postseason
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Brad Radke (R)
2007 Twins Rotation - Projected
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Matt Garza (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)
The uncertainty around the Twins starting rotation in 2007 has many fearing the worst. However, the Twins began the 2006 season with a rotation of Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, and Scott Baker. In the end, ten pitchers started at least one game for the Twins in 2006, and eight started more than seven games. In comparison, I don't think a consistent rotation of Santana, Boof Bonser, Silva, Matt Garza, and an improved Baker looks any worse. Radke struggled terribly through April and May last year, and it can be argued that a full year of Bonser would not be much, if any, of a drop-off. Silva will either improve or be replaced by someone who would be an improvement, Lohse is replaced by Garza, and Baker should improve and show signs of the form that made him reliable in 2005. While it would be great to have Liriano, the Twins can get by with Santana, Silva, and some young but very talented starters.
On an unrelated note, my NFL picks for this weekend:
Indianapolis Colts 20, Baltimore Ravens 17
New Orleans Saints 34, Philadelphia Eagles 20
Chicago Bears 24, Seattle Seahawks 10
San Diego Chargers 30, New England Patriots 27
A look at the potential starters for the Twins in 2007:
Johan Santana - Coming off his second Cy Young Award (and what should be his third in a row), Santana shows no signs of slowing down. The only uncertainty about Santana is of whether he'll be around past the end of the 2008 season. Santana is clearly the ace of this staff, and barring injury, he'll be in the Cy Young race in the fall.
Boof Bonser - Last May, I was among the many clamoring for Boof to get a call-up - not only due to his name, but because he dominated in AAA. While I had high hopes for Boof, I certainly didn't expect to be spelling "B-O-O-F" on shirts with some friends at the dome in October as Bonser started game 2 of the ALDS. Boof had a few decent starts in his first stint in the Twins rotation, but was yanked around between the majors and AAA between June and August. Once the Twins gave him a consistent turn in the rotation, he pitched admirably the rest of the way. Bonser seems to be the clear #2 starter for the Twins in 2007.
Carlos Silva - Last season was a train wreck for Silva. Somehow, thanks to injuries to other starters and Gardenhire's apparent fear of inexperience, Silva made 31 starts (second most on the team, behind Santana) and nearly was penciled into the postseason rotation. Silva, known as an effective ground-ball pitcher who lets opponents put the ball in play, had trouble keeping the ball down in '06. Silva's good starts were few and far between, and when he had one, it was ended without warning due to fatigue from base-running or a stomachache. Like many other Twins fans, by the end of the season I was about as far from the Silva bandwagon as possible. I had argued that the Twins shouldn't have picked up Silva's $4.5 million option for this season, but after the obscene amounts of money given to free agent starters this off-season, it looks like a reasonable move. If Silva returns to his pre-2006 form, the Twins have a steal. However, if Silva once again has trouble keeping his ERA below 6.00, I'd hate to see Gardy be as lenient with him as he was last year. The Twins have some young options with tons of potential who should do well if given a shot in the majors. The Twins appear to have penciled him in as the #3 guy, I'd probably put him in the #5 spot, with a very short leash.
Matt Garza - Garza appeared in 10 games and started 9 for the Twins last year. While shaky in his first start against Toronto, he showed significant improvement and had quite a few solid starts the rest of the way. Garza shot through the Twins' minor league system last year, posting a 1.42 ERA in A ball, 2.51 in AA, and 1.85 in AAA. I've heard there is a possibility of Garza starting the season in AAA and not being called up until June, to avoid Garza accumulating a year of major league service time, and therefore becoming arbitration-eligible at season's end. While I like the idea of avoiding arbitration with Garza for an extra year, he is too valuable to the Twins' rotation. I think Garza will open the season as the #4 guy for the Twins, and have a great season, posting an ERA under 4.
Scott Baker - I was very disappointed with the performance of Scott Baker last season. I thought he would follow up a strong rookie season with another solid year in 2006. Baker started 9 games in 2005, posting an amazing ERA of 3.35. In 16 starts in 2006, Baker's ERA rose to 6.37. For whatever reason, Baker struggled to keep the ball down in his big league starts. Perhaps, like Bonser, he was yanked around too much by the organization - even with the Twins, as fifth starters, their starts were often skipped, often leaving them to pitch only once in a 10+ game stretch. In AAA, Baker posted an ERA of only 2.67 - more in line with his previous seasons in AAA and his '05 MLB campaign. I expect Baker to take a step forward this season, and show the consistency that made him a joy to watch pitch in '05. If not, many believe this could be his last chance with the Twins. I think Baker will be the #5 guy, and will exceed expectations.
Glen Perkins - Perkins was called up to the Twins in September, appearing in 4 games and pitching 5.2 innings with a 1.59 ERA. While this is a very small sample, I was at the game he appeared in during the final series of the season against Chicago. Perkins pitched 3.2 very strong innings, at one point retiring ten White Sox in a row. Perkins looked very good, but would probably benefit from some more time in AAA, where he only made one start last year. In AA, Perkins posted a 3.91 ERA, and probably needs a little more time to develop to become a reliable big league starter. I'd love to see another lefty in the Twins rotation this year, and Perkins is the best option to join Santana. I think he'll start the year in AAA, but he'll see some time in the majors if anyone gets hurt.
Kevin Slowey - Slowey was the Twins' second-round pick in the 2005 draft, and like the first-round pick (Garza) has impressed in the minors. Slowey was dominant with a 1.01 ERA in 14 starts at class A Fort Myers, and handled the call-up to AA New Britain well, posting a 3.19 ERA in five starts. Slowey will get a look in spring training, but will likely start the season in the minors. Look for Slowey in 2008, as the Twins build their rotation of the future.
J.D. Durbin - Once touted as "The Real Deal", Durbin has fallen off the radar of many Twins fans. In his lone major league call-up in 2004, Durbin appeared in four games, starting one, with an ERA of 7.36 in 7.1 innings. The following season, Durbin struggled with confidence, but regained some of his top prospect status in 2006. Durbin started 16 games for Rochester last season and likely would have recieved a call-up had his season not been derailed by a nerve problem in his pitching arm. Durbin is out of options this season, and the Twins will likely lose him if he does not make the team out of spring training. Durbin still has great potential, and even if he can't take over the fifth rotation spot, the Twins could use him as Scott Eyre's replacement in the bullpen rather than risk losing him. That, however, could hinge on how the Twins feel about the Venafro/Cali/Choate trio and the possibility of having another lefty out of the bullpen. I am very unsure about Durbin. I'd love to see him stay with the team, either as a starter or reliever. I think he will open the season in the Twins' bullpen, or perhaps the Twins will stash him on the DL as the season begins.
Sidney Ponson - The Twins recently signed Ponson to an incentive-laden, 1-year deal that would be worth between $1 and 3 million if he makes the major league team. Personally, Ponson strikes me as Tony Batista if he were a pitcher. He had some good seasons, but his prime is clearly behind him. The Twins have hope that Rick Anderson can work wonders with him and return him to his 2003, 3.75 ERA form. The good news is that the Twins won't have to pay him much if he doesn't make the team out of spring training. The bad news - Gardy loves to come north with veterans. Personally, I can't see Gardenhire feeling too comfortable with a rotation that boasts only Santana and Silva as vets with more than a year of big league experience. Also, I'm worried that the time Anderson spends with Ponson could take away from the much-needed work that Scott Baker needs. In my mind, Baker is the one that would be more valuable to the 2007 Twins rotation.
A quick glance at the phases of the 2006 Twins rotation
2006 Twins Rotation - April
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Brad Radke (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Kyle Lohse (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)
2006 Twins Rotation - June
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Brad Radke (R)
3. Francisco Liriano (L)
4. Carlos Silva (R)
5. Boof Bonser (R)
2006 Twins Rotation - September
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Matt Garza (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)
2006 Twins Rotation - Postseason
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Brad Radke (R)
2007 Twins Rotation - Projected
1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Boof Bonser (R)
3. Carlos Silva (R)
4. Matt Garza (R)
5. Scott Baker (R)
The uncertainty around the Twins starting rotation in 2007 has many fearing the worst. However, the Twins began the 2006 season with a rotation of Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, and Scott Baker. In the end, ten pitchers started at least one game for the Twins in 2006, and eight started more than seven games. In comparison, I don't think a consistent rotation of Santana, Boof Bonser, Silva, Matt Garza, and an improved Baker looks any worse. Radke struggled terribly through April and May last year, and it can be argued that a full year of Bonser would not be much, if any, of a drop-off. Silva will either improve or be replaced by someone who would be an improvement, Lohse is replaced by Garza, and Baker should improve and show signs of the form that made him reliable in 2005. While it would be great to have Liriano, the Twins can get by with Santana, Silva, and some young but very talented starters.
On an unrelated note, my NFL picks for this weekend:
Indianapolis Colts 20, Baltimore Ravens 17
New Orleans Saints 34, Philadelphia Eagles 20
Chicago Bears 24, Seattle Seahawks 10
San Diego Chargers 30, New England Patriots 27
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Say It Ain't So!
As first reported by the New York Daily News, Barry Bonds failed a drug test last season. Major League Baseball does not hand out any punishment the first time a player tests positive for amphetamines, but a second failed test would saddle Bonds with a 25-game suspension.
Bonds contends that he failed due to a supplement taken from the locker of teammate Mark Sweeney, a move that recalls Rafael Palmeiro passing the blame to Miguel Tejada upon testing positive for steroids. Bonds says that he was unaware of the contents of the supplement, and apparently, he's dumber than I originally thought. Bonds expects us to believe that he, the most scutinized player in baseball's steroid controversy, would risk testing positive for a banned substance by ingesting a supplement without knowing its contents. And while Bonds has never been much of a clubhouse guy, I have to question the logic behind throwing a current teammate under the bus. Palmeiro was already on his way out of Baltimore when he blamed Tejada, but Bonds has stirred the pot in a clubhouse that he'll be in for the rest of the season. Finally, why haven't we heard whether Sweeney has tested positive for amphetamines? This supplement was allegedly in his locker, after all.
The cloud of suspicion continues to grow over Bonds. He opens the 2007 season just 21 home runs shy of Hank Aaron's 755, and not many want to see him get there. Personally, I think he'll still make it, but the chance that he'll miss significant time due to injury or suspension seems to be growing.
UPDATE: Bonds says he did not get amphetamines from Mark Sweeney.
Bonds contends that he failed due to a supplement taken from the locker of teammate Mark Sweeney, a move that recalls Rafael Palmeiro passing the blame to Miguel Tejada upon testing positive for steroids. Bonds says that he was unaware of the contents of the supplement, and apparently, he's dumber than I originally thought. Bonds expects us to believe that he, the most scutinized player in baseball's steroid controversy, would risk testing positive for a banned substance by ingesting a supplement without knowing its contents. And while Bonds has never been much of a clubhouse guy, I have to question the logic behind throwing a current teammate under the bus. Palmeiro was already on his way out of Baltimore when he blamed Tejada, but Bonds has stirred the pot in a clubhouse that he'll be in for the rest of the season. Finally, why haven't we heard whether Sweeney has tested positive for amphetamines? This supplement was allegedly in his locker, after all.
The cloud of suspicion continues to grow over Bonds. He opens the 2007 season just 21 home runs shy of Hank Aaron's 755, and not many want to see him get there. Personally, I think he'll still make it, but the chance that he'll miss significant time due to injury or suspension seems to be growing.
UPDATE: Bonds says he did not get amphetamines from Mark Sweeney.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
In Other News...
It has been reported that the Twins have signed left-handed reliever Randy Choate to a minor league contract. Choate will join Mike Venafro and Carmen Cali as possible options as a second lefty out of the Twins' pen in '07. The trio of Venafro, Cali, and Choate is similar to the Gabe White/Darrell May/Dennys Reyes trio brought in on minor league deals last spring. The hope once again is that Rick Anderson can turn one of the three into a quality option for the Twins' 'pen, and I can't disagree with the strategy. It seems to be a solid bet that at least one of the three will be a serviceable option for the club.
This leaves me to wonder where exactly the Twins stand on J.D. Durbin. I've heard this offseason that Durbin was the frontrunner for the final bullpen spot, as the Twins will likely lose him if he doesn't make the club out of spring training. I remember the hype of "The Real Deal" a couple years ago, and while he flamed out in his lone MLB call-up, the potential is still there. I'd love to see Durbin as part of the Twins long-term plans as a starter, but it seems his best shot this year is as a long reliever. I'm not sure where to stand on this one. I'd love to see Durbin stick around and realize his potential as a Twin, but I also feel like the Twins need more than one left-handed option out of the 'pen, with Gardy's tendency to use Reyes as a LOOGY.
Any thoughts?
This leaves me to wonder where exactly the Twins stand on J.D. Durbin. I've heard this offseason that Durbin was the frontrunner for the final bullpen spot, as the Twins will likely lose him if he doesn't make the club out of spring training. I remember the hype of "The Real Deal" a couple years ago, and while he flamed out in his lone MLB call-up, the potential is still there. I'd love to see Durbin as part of the Twins long-term plans as a starter, but it seems his best shot this year is as a long reliever. I'm not sure where to stand on this one. I'd love to see Durbin stick around and realize his potential as a Twin, but I also feel like the Twins need more than one left-handed option out of the 'pen, with Gardy's tendency to use Reyes as a LOOGY.
Any thoughts?
Back to the Future
A look at some players who are not yet eligible for the HOF, and how their HOF Monitor and HOF Standards scores from Baseball-Reference stack up. For reference, the highest Monitor score from this years' ballot was Tony Gwynn at 277.5, and the highest Standards score was Cal Ripken, Jr. at 58.3.
HOF Monitor (How likely, not necessarily how deserving, a player is to make the Hall of Fame - an explanation of the scoring system is available here) (1st all-time is Ty Cobb, at 451)
1. Barry Bonds - 345
2. Roger Clemens - 326
3. Randy Johnson - 320
4. Alex Rodriguez - 266
5. Greg Maddux - 241
6. Ivan Rodriguez - 212
7. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 209
8. Mike Piazza - 205
9t. Roberto Alomar - 193
9t. Pedro Martinez - 193
11. Derek Jeter - 192
12. Sammy Sosa - 191
13. Rickey Henderson - 186
14. Frank Thomas - 184
15. Manny Ramirez - 182
16. Rafael Palmiero - 180
17. Mariano Rivera - 173
18. Curt Schilling - 167
19. Tom Glavine - 166
20. Vladimir Guerrero - 163
21. Todd Helton - 161
22. Albert Pujols - 154
23. Jeff Bagwell - 149
24. Larry Walker - 147
25t. Craig Biggio - 145
25t. Ichiro Suzuki - 145
27. John Smoltz - 142
28. Bernie Williams - 133
29t. Trevor Hoffman - 132
29t. Gary Sheffield - 132
31. Edgar Martinez - 131
32. Chipper Jones - 128
33. Jim Thome - 127
34. John Franco - 124
35t. Nomar Garciaparra - 120
35t. Juan Gonzalez - 120
37. Barry Larkin - 118
38. Andres Galarraga - 114
39. Mike Mussina - 109
40. Omar Vizquel - 108
41t. David Cone - 103
41t. Jeff Kent - 103
41t. Jose Mesa - 103
44t. Carlos Delgado - 100
44t. Andruw Jones - 100
44t. Fred McGriff - 100
Notable Current/Former Twins
Rod Carew - 242
Harmon Killebrew - 172
Paul Molitor - 165
Kirby Puckett - 155
Dave Winfield - 148
Jim Kaat - 129
Jack Morris - 122
Bert Blyleven - 120
Tony Oliva - 114
Jeff Reardon - 106
Rick Aguilera - 90
David Ortiz - 69
Frank Viola - 69
Chuck Knoblauch - 66
Kenny Rogers - 66
Bret Boone - 62
Jim Perry - 59
Ruben Sierra - 58
Johan Santana - 56
Mike Jackson - 52
Luis Castillo - 40
Eddie Guardado - 39
Jeff Cirillo - 37
Joe Nathan - 36
Shannon Stewart - 33
Joe Mauer - 30
Tony Batista - 26
Scott Erickson - 23
Phil Nevin - 23
Jose Offerman - 22
A.J. Pierzynski - 22
Torii Hunter - 20
Mark Guthrie - 19
Kent Hrbek - 19
Corey Koskie - 16
Justin Morneau - 16
Cristian Guzman - 14
Matt Lawton - 14
Terry Mulholland - 14
Rick Reed - 14
Brad Radke - 13
Marty Cordova - 11
LaTroy Hawkins - 9
Francisco Liriano - 6
Joe Mays - 6
The lowest score for any current HOF pitcher is Ted Lyons at 65. For a batter, Jake Beckley at 84. The lowest for a batter in the expansion era is Willie Stargell at 107, lowest pitcher is Bruce Sutter at 91. Ted Simmons was the highest score for a batter not enshrined in the Hall (and past Writers' Ballot eligibility) at 124, until Albert Belle was left off the ballot for 2008 with a score of 134. Pete Rose's score of 313 is not counted for practical purposes. Jim McCormick's score of 194 is the highest for a pitcher not enshrined, the highest for a pitcher from the expansion era is Jim Kaat, at 129.
HOF Standards (an explanation of the formula can be found here, note that there are no standards for relievers, explaining the low scores of Lee Smith and Goose Gossage that I reported yesterday) (1st all-time is Christy Mathewson at 84)
1. Barry Bonds - 75
2. Roger Clemens - 72
3. Greg Maddux - 68
4. Alex Rodriguez - 63
5. Randy Johnson - 62
6. Mike Piazza - 61
7t. Jeff Bagwell - 59
7t. Pedro Martinez - 59
7t. Frank Thomas - 59
10t. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 58
10t. Manny Ramirez - 58
12t. Rafael Palmiero - 57
12t. Gary Sheffield - 57
12t. Larry Walker - 57
15t. Roberto Alomar - 56
15t. Craig Biggio - 56
17. Ivan Rodriguez - 53
18. Rickey Henderson - 52
19. Derek Jeter - 51
20. Chipper Jones - 50
21t. Tom Glavine - 49
21t. Edgar Martinez - 49
23t. Mike Mussina - 48
23t. Jim Thome - 48
23t. Bernie Williams - 48
26t. Fred McGriff - 47
26t. Sammy Sosa - 47
28t. Jeff Kent - 46
28t. Barry Larkin - 46
28t. Tim Raines - 46
28t. Curt Schilling - 46
32t. Vladimir Guerrero - 44
32t. Todd Helton - 44
34. Nomar Garciaparra - 43
35. Luis Gonzalez - 42
36t. Moises Alou - 41
36t. Kevin Brown - 41
36t. Ellis Burks - 41
36t. Julio Franco - 41
36t. John Smoltz - 41
41. David Wells - 40
42t. David Cone - 39
42t. Jim Edmonds - 39
42t. Juan Gonzalez - 39
42t. Jason Kendall - 39
42t. Kenny Lofton - 39
47t. Lance Berkman - 38
47t. Carlos Delgado - 38
47t. Mark Grace - 38
47t. John Olerud - 38
47t. Albert Pujols - 38
Notable Current/Former Twins
Paul Molitor - 59
Dave Winfield - 55
Rod Carew - 54
Bert Blyleven - 50
Harmon Killebrew - 45
Jim Kaat - 44
Jack Morris - 39
Kirby Puckett - 38
Chili Davis - 38
Chuck Knoblauch - 33
Johan Santana - 33
Jim Perry - 32
Kenny Rogers - 30
Tony Oliva - 29
Joe Mauer - 28
Luis Castillo - 27
Ruben Sierra - 27
Bret Boone - 26
Kent Hrbek - 26
David Ortiz - 25
Jeff Cirillo - 23
Greg Myers - 23
Todd Walker - 21
Jose Offerman - 20
Phil Nevin - 19
Tony Batista - 18
Shannon Stewart - 18
Rondell White - 18
Torii Hunter - 16
Matt Lawton - 16
Justin Morneau - 15
Brad Radke - 15
Rick Reed - 12
Carlos Silva - 12
Mike Jackson - 11
Terry Mulholland - 9
Bob Wells - 9
Scott Erickson - 8
Eddie Guardado - 7
Eric Milton - 6
Hector Carrasco - 5
The highest score for an unenshrined, no-longer-eligible batter is 51 for George Van Haltren (the highest for an expansion era player is Ted Simmons' 44). Baseball-Reference only lists the top 200 scores, and Ozzie Smith is the lowest HOF batter on the page at 35. The lowest score for a HOF pitcher is Jessie Haynes at 27 (Catfish Hunter at 42 is the lowest of any pitcher to play the majority of his career in the expansion era). Jim McCormick's 51 is the highest score for an unenshrined, no-longer-eligible pitcher (the expansion-era high is Jim Kaat's 44).
What jumps out at me most after looking at these numbers, is that two Twins pitchers (Blyleven and Kaat) should easily be in the Hall by now. Blyleven's time on the ballot is running out, Kaat went off the ballot after the 2003 election. Somehow, Kaat's best year was 1993, when he received only 29.55% of the vote.
Finally, the first-timers on next year's ballot:
HOF Monitor
1. Robb Nen - 92
2. Tim Raines - 90
3. Chuck Knoblauch - 66.5
4. Chuck Finley - 53.5
5. David Justice - 43.5
6. Brady Anderson - 38
7. Travis Fryman - 36
8. Darryl Kile - 31
9. Mark Wohlers - 27
10. Andy Benes - 18
11. Shawon Dunston - 14
12t. Greg Swindell - 12
12t. Mike Morgan - 12
14. Randy Velarde - 11.5
15. Delino DeShields - 3
HOF Standards
1. Tim Raines - 46.8
2. Chuck Knoblauch - 33.7
3. David Justice - 28.7
4. Chuck Finley - 27
5. Travis Fryman - 26.3
6. Brady Anderson - 26.1
7. Delino DeShields - 25.2
8. Shawon Dunston - 19.1
9. Andy Benes - 19
10. Randy Velarde - 17.8
11. Robb Nen - 15
12. Greg Swindell -13
13. Darryl Kile - 12
14t. Mark Wohlers - 11
14t. Mike Morgan - 11
Tim Raines seems to be the only newcomer to the ballot with much of a chance to get in at any point. He won't be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but his speed will give him a chance.
That's all I have for the Hall (I think), so the huge lists will be gone for a while, and there will probably be some shorter posts the next few days.
HOF Monitor (How likely, not necessarily how deserving, a player is to make the Hall of Fame - an explanation of the scoring system is available here) (1st all-time is Ty Cobb, at 451)
1. Barry Bonds - 345
2. Roger Clemens - 326
3. Randy Johnson - 320
4. Alex Rodriguez - 266
5. Greg Maddux - 241
6. Ivan Rodriguez - 212
7. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 209
8. Mike Piazza - 205
9t. Roberto Alomar - 193
9t. Pedro Martinez - 193
11. Derek Jeter - 192
12. Sammy Sosa - 191
13. Rickey Henderson - 186
14. Frank Thomas - 184
15. Manny Ramirez - 182
16. Rafael Palmiero - 180
17. Mariano Rivera - 173
18. Curt Schilling - 167
19. Tom Glavine - 166
20. Vladimir Guerrero - 163
21. Todd Helton - 161
22. Albert Pujols - 154
23. Jeff Bagwell - 149
24. Larry Walker - 147
25t. Craig Biggio - 145
25t. Ichiro Suzuki - 145
27. John Smoltz - 142
28. Bernie Williams - 133
29t. Trevor Hoffman - 132
29t. Gary Sheffield - 132
31. Edgar Martinez - 131
32. Chipper Jones - 128
33. Jim Thome - 127
34. John Franco - 124
35t. Nomar Garciaparra - 120
35t. Juan Gonzalez - 120
37. Barry Larkin - 118
38. Andres Galarraga - 114
39. Mike Mussina - 109
40. Omar Vizquel - 108
41t. David Cone - 103
41t. Jeff Kent - 103
41t. Jose Mesa - 103
44t. Carlos Delgado - 100
44t. Andruw Jones - 100
44t. Fred McGriff - 100
Notable Current/Former Twins
Rod Carew - 242
Harmon Killebrew - 172
Paul Molitor - 165
Kirby Puckett - 155
Dave Winfield - 148
Jim Kaat - 129
Jack Morris - 122
Bert Blyleven - 120
Tony Oliva - 114
Jeff Reardon - 106
Rick Aguilera - 90
David Ortiz - 69
Frank Viola - 69
Chuck Knoblauch - 66
Kenny Rogers - 66
Bret Boone - 62
Jim Perry - 59
Ruben Sierra - 58
Johan Santana - 56
Mike Jackson - 52
Luis Castillo - 40
Eddie Guardado - 39
Jeff Cirillo - 37
Joe Nathan - 36
Shannon Stewart - 33
Joe Mauer - 30
Tony Batista - 26
Scott Erickson - 23
Phil Nevin - 23
Jose Offerman - 22
A.J. Pierzynski - 22
Torii Hunter - 20
Mark Guthrie - 19
Kent Hrbek - 19
Corey Koskie - 16
Justin Morneau - 16
Cristian Guzman - 14
Matt Lawton - 14
Terry Mulholland - 14
Rick Reed - 14
Brad Radke - 13
Marty Cordova - 11
LaTroy Hawkins - 9
Francisco Liriano - 6
Joe Mays - 6
The lowest score for any current HOF pitcher is Ted Lyons at 65. For a batter, Jake Beckley at 84. The lowest for a batter in the expansion era is Willie Stargell at 107, lowest pitcher is Bruce Sutter at 91. Ted Simmons was the highest score for a batter not enshrined in the Hall (and past Writers' Ballot eligibility) at 124, until Albert Belle was left off the ballot for 2008 with a score of 134. Pete Rose's score of 313 is not counted for practical purposes. Jim McCormick's score of 194 is the highest for a pitcher not enshrined, the highest for a pitcher from the expansion era is Jim Kaat, at 129.
HOF Standards (an explanation of the formula can be found here, note that there are no standards for relievers, explaining the low scores of Lee Smith and Goose Gossage that I reported yesterday) (1st all-time is Christy Mathewson at 84)
1. Barry Bonds - 75
2. Roger Clemens - 72
3. Greg Maddux - 68
4. Alex Rodriguez - 63
5. Randy Johnson - 62
6. Mike Piazza - 61
7t. Jeff Bagwell - 59
7t. Pedro Martinez - 59
7t. Frank Thomas - 59
10t. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 58
10t. Manny Ramirez - 58
12t. Rafael Palmiero - 57
12t. Gary Sheffield - 57
12t. Larry Walker - 57
15t. Roberto Alomar - 56
15t. Craig Biggio - 56
17. Ivan Rodriguez - 53
18. Rickey Henderson - 52
19. Derek Jeter - 51
20. Chipper Jones - 50
21t. Tom Glavine - 49
21t. Edgar Martinez - 49
23t. Mike Mussina - 48
23t. Jim Thome - 48
23t. Bernie Williams - 48
26t. Fred McGriff - 47
26t. Sammy Sosa - 47
28t. Jeff Kent - 46
28t. Barry Larkin - 46
28t. Tim Raines - 46
28t. Curt Schilling - 46
32t. Vladimir Guerrero - 44
32t. Todd Helton - 44
34. Nomar Garciaparra - 43
35. Luis Gonzalez - 42
36t. Moises Alou - 41
36t. Kevin Brown - 41
36t. Ellis Burks - 41
36t. Julio Franco - 41
36t. John Smoltz - 41
41. David Wells - 40
42t. David Cone - 39
42t. Jim Edmonds - 39
42t. Juan Gonzalez - 39
42t. Jason Kendall - 39
42t. Kenny Lofton - 39
47t. Lance Berkman - 38
47t. Carlos Delgado - 38
47t. Mark Grace - 38
47t. John Olerud - 38
47t. Albert Pujols - 38
Notable Current/Former Twins
Paul Molitor - 59
Dave Winfield - 55
Rod Carew - 54
Bert Blyleven - 50
Harmon Killebrew - 45
Jim Kaat - 44
Jack Morris - 39
Kirby Puckett - 38
Chili Davis - 38
Chuck Knoblauch - 33
Johan Santana - 33
Jim Perry - 32
Kenny Rogers - 30
Tony Oliva - 29
Joe Mauer - 28
Luis Castillo - 27
Ruben Sierra - 27
Bret Boone - 26
Kent Hrbek - 26
David Ortiz - 25
Jeff Cirillo - 23
Greg Myers - 23
Todd Walker - 21
Jose Offerman - 20
Phil Nevin - 19
Tony Batista - 18
Shannon Stewart - 18
Rondell White - 18
Torii Hunter - 16
Matt Lawton - 16
Justin Morneau - 15
Brad Radke - 15
Rick Reed - 12
Carlos Silva - 12
Mike Jackson - 11
Terry Mulholland - 9
Bob Wells - 9
Scott Erickson - 8
Eddie Guardado - 7
Eric Milton - 6
Hector Carrasco - 5
The highest score for an unenshrined, no-longer-eligible batter is 51 for George Van Haltren (the highest for an expansion era player is Ted Simmons' 44). Baseball-Reference only lists the top 200 scores, and Ozzie Smith is the lowest HOF batter on the page at 35. The lowest score for a HOF pitcher is Jessie Haynes at 27 (Catfish Hunter at 42 is the lowest of any pitcher to play the majority of his career in the expansion era). Jim McCormick's 51 is the highest score for an unenshrined, no-longer-eligible pitcher (the expansion-era high is Jim Kaat's 44).
What jumps out at me most after looking at these numbers, is that two Twins pitchers (Blyleven and Kaat) should easily be in the Hall by now. Blyleven's time on the ballot is running out, Kaat went off the ballot after the 2003 election. Somehow, Kaat's best year was 1993, when he received only 29.55% of the vote.
Finally, the first-timers on next year's ballot:
HOF Monitor
1. Robb Nen - 92
2. Tim Raines - 90
3. Chuck Knoblauch - 66.5
4. Chuck Finley - 53.5
5. David Justice - 43.5
6. Brady Anderson - 38
7. Travis Fryman - 36
8. Darryl Kile - 31
9. Mark Wohlers - 27
10. Andy Benes - 18
11. Shawon Dunston - 14
12t. Greg Swindell - 12
12t. Mike Morgan - 12
14. Randy Velarde - 11.5
15. Delino DeShields - 3
HOF Standards
1. Tim Raines - 46.8
2. Chuck Knoblauch - 33.7
3. David Justice - 28.7
4. Chuck Finley - 27
5. Travis Fryman - 26.3
6. Brady Anderson - 26.1
7. Delino DeShields - 25.2
8. Shawon Dunston - 19.1
9. Andy Benes - 19
10. Randy Velarde - 17.8
11. Robb Nen - 15
12. Greg Swindell -13
13. Darryl Kile - 12
14t. Mark Wohlers - 11
14t. Mike Morgan - 11
Tim Raines seems to be the only newcomer to the ballot with much of a chance to get in at any point. He won't be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but his speed will give him a chance.
That's all I have for the Hall (I think), so the huge lists will be gone for a while, and there will probably be some shorter posts the next few days.
Tuesday, January 9, 2007
2007 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot, Part Two
The results are in, and there are no surprise inductees this year. As expected, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn were elected into Cooperstown. Ripken received 98.53% of the vote, third-highest all-time, behind only Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan. Gwynn's 97.61% is good enough for seventh all-time. As for the guys we're watching around these parts, Bert Blyleven fell from 53.3% to 47.7%, and Jack Morris fell from 41.2% to 37.1%. One player I would have voted for, Harold Baines, narrowly avoided being left off next years ballot, with only 5.3% of the vote. Those who will not be on next years ballot include: Orel Hershiser, Albert Belle, Paul O'Neill, Bret Saberhagen, Jose Canseco, Tony Fernandez, Dante Bichette, Eric Davis, Bobby Bonilla, Ken Caminiti, Jay Buhner, Scott Brosius, Wally Joyner, Devon White, and Bobby Witt.
The players I would vote for:
Cal Ripken, Jr. - 98.5%
Tony Gwynn - 97.6%
Bert Blyleven - 47.7%
Lee Smith - 39.8%
Jack Morris - 37.1%
Tommy John - 22.9%
Harold Baines - 5.3%
A short argument for each of the other five:
Bert Blyleven - Blyleven is 5th all-time in strikeouts, with 3,701, and is the only eligible pitcher with 3,000+ strikeouts not enshrined in Cooperstown. Blyleven ranked in the AL's top 5 in ERA seven times, and ranks 9th all-time with 60 shutouts.
Lee Smith - Until last summer, Smith was the all-time leader in saves. Many say there is a stronger argument to be made for Gossage. I don't feel that either Smith or Gossage is more deserving than Bruce Sutter. Closer is a tough position at which to gauge the actual value of a player. The save is an entirely different statistic now than it was 20 or 30 years ago. However, I took a quick glance at the Rolaids Reliever of the Year award and the league leaders in saves to find this:
Bruce Sutter won 4 Rolaids Awards and led his league in saves 5 times
Lee Smith won 3 Rolaids Awards and led his league in saves 4 times
Goose Gossage won 1 Rolaids Award and led his league in saves 3 times
It's a small sample from a bigger picture of career stats, but comparing awards and leaderboard appearances does a better job of evaluating closers than simply comparing saves. I believe Smith should be in, and while there is an argument to be made for Gossage, that argument shouldn't be that he was better than Sutter.
Jack Morris - Even though I'd love to see a Minnesotan and 1991 World Series hero in the hall, I struggle with this vote. His career ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of all Hall of Fame pitchers, but he was the ace of three World Series staffs. He was a 5-time all star and had one of the single greatest pitching performances of all-time. Morris finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting five times. However, the number that may speak most for the candidacy of Morris - 162 wins in the 1980s, most by any pitcher.
Tommy John - John was a 4-time All-Star, and finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting three times. John's 288 wins rank 25th all-time, and all but one eligible pitcher above him is enshrined in Cooperstown.
Harold Baines - Only one more healthy season out of this guy, and he would be a virtual lock for the Hall, with over 3,000 hits. Baines finished his career 134 hits shy of 3,000, and has numbers that compare very well to Andre Dawson's, and Dawson recieved 56.7% of the vote. Dawson was a better fielder, but Baines topped him in career batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS.
Yesterday I looked at Baseball-Reference's HOF Monitor for the 32 official HOF candidates, today we have the HOF Standards, which seem to fit my idea of deserving hall candidates a little better.
Baseball-Reference HOF Standards (Average HOF'er = 50)
1. Cal Ripken, Jr. - 58.3
2. Tony Gwynn - 53.9
3. Bert Blyleven - 50 (according to this, Bert isn't just a fringe guy, but he's better than about half of MLB's current HOF'ers)
4. Tommy John - 44
5. Andre Dawson - 43.7
6. Harold Baines - 43.5
7. Jim Rice - 42.9
8. Mark McGwire - 42
9. Dave Parker - 41.1
10. Alan Trammell - 40.4
11. Jack Morris - 39
12. Jose Canseco - 38.1
13. Paul O'Neill - 36.9
14. Albert Belle - 36.1
15. Dale Murphy - 34.3
16. Don Mattingly - 34.1
17. Orel Hershiser - 34
18t. Bret Saberhagen - 32
18t. Bobby Bonilla - 32
20t. Steve Garvey - 31.5
20t. Tony Fernandez - 31.5
22. Dante Bichette - 30.5
23. Dave Concepcion - 29.1
24. Eric Davis - 26.8
25. Jay Buhner - 25.8
26. Wally Joyner - 24.9
27. Ken Caminiti - 24.8
28. Devon White - 21.3
29. Rich Gossage - 19
30. Lee Smith - 13
31. Scott Brosius - 12.6
32. Bobby Witt - 11
While Baines isn't a sure-fire HOF'er, I'm glad he stays on the ballot. He deserves much more than 5.3% of the vote, and I feel like he should get a closer look.
That's all I've got for now, tomorrow we'll look at some active or not-yet-eligible players and their HOF Monitor and HOF Standards scores, and how some notable Twins stack up.
The players I would vote for:
Cal Ripken, Jr. - 98.5%
Tony Gwynn - 97.6%
Bert Blyleven - 47.7%
Lee Smith - 39.8%
Jack Morris - 37.1%
Tommy John - 22.9%
Harold Baines - 5.3%
A short argument for each of the other five:
Bert Blyleven - Blyleven is 5th all-time in strikeouts, with 3,701, and is the only eligible pitcher with 3,000+ strikeouts not enshrined in Cooperstown. Blyleven ranked in the AL's top 5 in ERA seven times, and ranks 9th all-time with 60 shutouts.
Lee Smith - Until last summer, Smith was the all-time leader in saves. Many say there is a stronger argument to be made for Gossage. I don't feel that either Smith or Gossage is more deserving than Bruce Sutter. Closer is a tough position at which to gauge the actual value of a player. The save is an entirely different statistic now than it was 20 or 30 years ago. However, I took a quick glance at the Rolaids Reliever of the Year award and the league leaders in saves to find this:
Bruce Sutter won 4 Rolaids Awards and led his league in saves 5 times
Lee Smith won 3 Rolaids Awards and led his league in saves 4 times
Goose Gossage won 1 Rolaids Award and led his league in saves 3 times
It's a small sample from a bigger picture of career stats, but comparing awards and leaderboard appearances does a better job of evaluating closers than simply comparing saves. I believe Smith should be in, and while there is an argument to be made for Gossage, that argument shouldn't be that he was better than Sutter.
Jack Morris - Even though I'd love to see a Minnesotan and 1991 World Series hero in the hall, I struggle with this vote. His career ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of all Hall of Fame pitchers, but he was the ace of three World Series staffs. He was a 5-time all star and had one of the single greatest pitching performances of all-time. Morris finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting five times. However, the number that may speak most for the candidacy of Morris - 162 wins in the 1980s, most by any pitcher.
Tommy John - John was a 4-time All-Star, and finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting three times. John's 288 wins rank 25th all-time, and all but one eligible pitcher above him is enshrined in Cooperstown.
Harold Baines - Only one more healthy season out of this guy, and he would be a virtual lock for the Hall, with over 3,000 hits. Baines finished his career 134 hits shy of 3,000, and has numbers that compare very well to Andre Dawson's, and Dawson recieved 56.7% of the vote. Dawson was a better fielder, but Baines topped him in career batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS.
Yesterday I looked at Baseball-Reference's HOF Monitor for the 32 official HOF candidates, today we have the HOF Standards, which seem to fit my idea of deserving hall candidates a little better.
Baseball-Reference HOF Standards (Average HOF'er = 50)
1. Cal Ripken, Jr. - 58.3
2. Tony Gwynn - 53.9
3. Bert Blyleven - 50 (according to this, Bert isn't just a fringe guy, but he's better than about half of MLB's current HOF'ers)
4. Tommy John - 44
5. Andre Dawson - 43.7
6. Harold Baines - 43.5
7. Jim Rice - 42.9
8. Mark McGwire - 42
9. Dave Parker - 41.1
10. Alan Trammell - 40.4
11. Jack Morris - 39
12. Jose Canseco - 38.1
13. Paul O'Neill - 36.9
14. Albert Belle - 36.1
15. Dale Murphy - 34.3
16. Don Mattingly - 34.1
17. Orel Hershiser - 34
18t. Bret Saberhagen - 32
18t. Bobby Bonilla - 32
20t. Steve Garvey - 31.5
20t. Tony Fernandez - 31.5
22. Dante Bichette - 30.5
23. Dave Concepcion - 29.1
24. Eric Davis - 26.8
25. Jay Buhner - 25.8
26. Wally Joyner - 24.9
27. Ken Caminiti - 24.8
28. Devon White - 21.3
29. Rich Gossage - 19
30. Lee Smith - 13
31. Scott Brosius - 12.6
32. Bobby Witt - 11
While Baines isn't a sure-fire HOF'er, I'm glad he stays on the ballot. He deserves much more than 5.3% of the vote, and I feel like he should get a closer look.
That's all I've got for now, tomorrow we'll look at some active or not-yet-eligible players and their HOF Monitor and HOF Standards scores, and how some notable Twins stack up.
Monday, January 8, 2007
2007 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot, Part One
The 2007 MLB Hall of Fame vote will be one of the most controversial in history, as Mark McGwire graces the ballot for the first time. There are 32 candidates, including McGwire, on MLB's official ballot. Two - Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. - are regarded as sure things. Seventeen - over half of those on the ballot - are first-time candidates. Of those 17, three - McGwire, Jose Canseco, and Ken Caminiti - are either known or suspected steroid users. And finally, two starting pitchers - Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven - are hometown candidates on the fringe of Hall acceptance. MLB Announces the results tomorrow, and I will profile the candidates I would vote for, as well as some who are considered "on the fringe".
My votes, if I had them, would be for:
Harold Baines, OF/DH
Bert Blyleven, SP
Tony Gwynn, OF
Tommy John, SP
Jack Morris, SP
Cal Ripken Jr., SS/3B
Lee Smith, CP
I'm not sure how players are selected for inclusion on the official Hall of Fame ballot, but I'm not quite sure about the inclusion of guys like Scott Brosius, Wally Joyner, Devon White, and Bobby Witt.
And, just for fun, a look at the HOF Monitor scores of the 32 official candidates, from Baseball-Reference (a score over 100 indicates a good chance of induction, 130 or higher indicates a virtual cinch):
1. Tony Gwynn - 277.5
2. Cal Ripken, Jr. - 236
3. Mark McGwire - 169.5
4. Jim Rice - 146.5
5. Lee Smith - 135
6. Albert Belle - 134.5
7. Don Mattingly - 133.5
8. Steve Garvey - 130.5
9. Rich Gossage - 126
10. Dave Parker - 125.5
11. Jack Morris - 122.5
12. Bert Blyleven - 120.5
13. Alan Trammell - 118.5
14. Andre Dawson - 118
15. Dale Murphy - 115.5
16. Tommy John - 111
17. Dave Concepcion - 106.5
18. Jose Canseco - 103
19. Orel Hershiser - 90.5
20. Dante Bichette - 82
21. Tony Fernandez - 74
22t. Paul O'Neill - 70.5
22t. Bret Saberhagen - 70.5
24. Harold Baines - 66.5
25. Bobby Bonilla - 64.5
26. Ken Caminiti - 38
27t. Jay Buhner - 34.5
27t. Devon White - 34.5
29t. Eric Davis - 27.5
29t. Wally Joyner - 27.5
31. Scott Brosius - 19
32. Bobby Witt - 7
As stated over at Baseball-Reference, the HOF Monitor scores how likely a player is to be inducted into the Hall, not how deserving they actually are. Tomorrow, we'll look at Baseball-Reference's HOF Standards scores, and see how they compare.
My votes, if I had them, would be for:
Harold Baines, OF/DH
Bert Blyleven, SP
Tony Gwynn, OF
Tommy John, SP
Jack Morris, SP
Cal Ripken Jr., SS/3B
Lee Smith, CP
I'm not sure how players are selected for inclusion on the official Hall of Fame ballot, but I'm not quite sure about the inclusion of guys like Scott Brosius, Wally Joyner, Devon White, and Bobby Witt.
And, just for fun, a look at the HOF Monitor scores of the 32 official candidates, from Baseball-Reference (a score over 100 indicates a good chance of induction, 130 or higher indicates a virtual cinch):
1. Tony Gwynn - 277.5
2. Cal Ripken, Jr. - 236
3. Mark McGwire - 169.5
4. Jim Rice - 146.5
5. Lee Smith - 135
6. Albert Belle - 134.5
7. Don Mattingly - 133.5
8. Steve Garvey - 130.5
9. Rich Gossage - 126
10. Dave Parker - 125.5
11. Jack Morris - 122.5
12. Bert Blyleven - 120.5
13. Alan Trammell - 118.5
14. Andre Dawson - 118
15. Dale Murphy - 115.5
16. Tommy John - 111
17. Dave Concepcion - 106.5
18. Jose Canseco - 103
19. Orel Hershiser - 90.5
20. Dante Bichette - 82
21. Tony Fernandez - 74
22t. Paul O'Neill - 70.5
22t. Bret Saberhagen - 70.5
24. Harold Baines - 66.5
25. Bobby Bonilla - 64.5
26. Ken Caminiti - 38
27t. Jay Buhner - 34.5
27t. Devon White - 34.5
29t. Eric Davis - 27.5
29t. Wally Joyner - 27.5
31. Scott Brosius - 19
32. Bobby Witt - 7
As stated over at Baseball-Reference, the HOF Monitor scores how likely a player is to be inducted into the Hall, not how deserving they actually are. Tomorrow, we'll look at Baseball-Reference's HOF Standards scores, and see how they compare.
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