2007 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot, Part Two

The results are in, and there are no surprise inductees this year. As expected, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn were elected into Cooperstown. Ripken received 98.53% of the vote, third-highest all-time, behind only Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan. Gwynn's 97.61% is good enough for seventh all-time. As for the guys we're watching around these parts, Bert Blyleven fell from 53.3% to 47.7%, and Jack Morris fell from 41.2% to 37.1%. One player I would have voted for, Harold Baines, narrowly avoided being left off next years ballot, with only 5.3% of the vote. Those who will not be on next years ballot include: Orel Hershiser, Albert Belle, Paul O'Neill, Bret Saberhagen, Jose Canseco, Tony Fernandez, Dante Bichette, Eric Davis, Bobby Bonilla, Ken Caminiti, Jay Buhner, Scott Brosius, Wally Joyner, Devon White, and Bobby Witt.

The players I would vote for:
Cal Ripken, Jr. - 98.5%
Tony Gwynn - 97.6%
Bert Blyleven - 47.7%
Lee Smith - 39.8%
Jack Morris - 37.1%
Tommy John - 22.9%
Harold Baines - 5.3%

A short argument for each of the other five:
Bert Blyleven - Blyleven is 5th all-time in strikeouts, with 3,701, and is the only eligible pitcher with 3,000+ strikeouts not enshrined in Cooperstown. Blyleven ranked in the AL's top 5 in ERA seven times, and ranks 9th all-time with 60 shutouts.

Lee Smith - Until last summer, Smith was the all-time leader in saves. Many say there is a stronger argument to be made for Gossage. I don't feel that either Smith or Gossage is more deserving than Bruce Sutter. Closer is a tough position at which to gauge the actual value of a player. The save is an entirely different statistic now than it was 20 or 30 years ago. However, I took a quick glance at the Rolaids Reliever of the Year award and the league leaders in saves to find this:

Bruce Sutter won 4 Rolaids Awards and led his league in saves 5 times
Lee Smith won 3 Rolaids Awards and led his league in saves 4 times
Goose Gossage won 1 Rolaids Award and led his league in saves 3 times

It's a small sample from a bigger picture of career stats, but comparing awards and leaderboard appearances does a better job of evaluating closers than simply comparing saves. I believe Smith should be in, and while there is an argument to be made for Gossage, that argument shouldn't be that he was better than Sutter.

Jack Morris - Even though I'd love to see a Minnesotan and 1991 World Series hero in the hall, I struggle with this vote. His career ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of all Hall of Fame pitchers, but he was the ace of three World Series staffs. He was a 5-time all star and had one of the single greatest pitching performances of all-time. Morris finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting five times. However, the number that may speak most for the candidacy of Morris - 162 wins in the 1980s, most by any pitcher.

Tommy John - John was a 4-time All-Star, and finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting three times. John's 288 wins rank 25th all-time, and all but one eligible pitcher above him is enshrined in Cooperstown.

Harold Baines - Only one more healthy season out of this guy, and he would be a virtual lock for the Hall, with over 3,000 hits. Baines finished his career 134 hits shy of 3,000, and has numbers that compare very well to Andre Dawson's, and Dawson recieved 56.7% of the vote. Dawson was a better fielder, but Baines topped him in career batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS.

Yesterday I looked at Baseball-Reference's HOF Monitor for the 32 official HOF candidates, today we have the HOF Standards, which seem to fit my idea of deserving hall candidates a little better.
Baseball-Reference HOF Standards (Average HOF'er = 50)
1. Cal Ripken, Jr. - 58.3
2. Tony Gwynn - 53.9
3. Bert Blyleven - 50 (according to this, Bert isn't just a fringe guy, but he's better than about half of MLB's current HOF'ers)
4. Tommy John - 44
5. Andre Dawson - 43.7
6. Harold Baines - 43.5
7. Jim Rice - 42.9
8. Mark McGwire - 42
9. Dave Parker - 41.1
10. Alan Trammell - 40.4
11. Jack Morris - 39
12. Jose Canseco - 38.1
13. Paul O'Neill - 36.9
14. Albert Belle - 36.1
15. Dale Murphy - 34.3
16. Don Mattingly - 34.1
17. Orel Hershiser - 34
18t. Bret Saberhagen - 32
18t. Bobby Bonilla - 32
20t. Steve Garvey - 31.5
20t. Tony Fernandez - 31.5
22. Dante Bichette - 30.5
23. Dave Concepcion - 29.1
24. Eric Davis - 26.8
25. Jay Buhner - 25.8
26. Wally Joyner - 24.9
27. Ken Caminiti - 24.8
28. Devon White - 21.3
29. Rich Gossage - 19
30. Lee Smith - 13
31. Scott Brosius - 12.6
32. Bobby Witt - 11

While Baines isn't a sure-fire HOF'er, I'm glad he stays on the ballot. He deserves much more than 5.3% of the vote, and I feel like he should get a closer look.

That's all I've got for now, tomorrow we'll look at some active or not-yet-eligible players and their HOF Monitor and HOF Standards scores, and how some notable Twins stack up.