Back to the Future

A look at some players who are not yet eligible for the HOF, and how their HOF Monitor and HOF Standards scores from Baseball-Reference stack up. For reference, the highest Monitor score from this years' ballot was Tony Gwynn at 277.5, and the highest Standards score was Cal Ripken, Jr. at 58.3.

HOF Monitor (How likely, not necessarily how deserving, a player is to make the Hall of Fame - an explanation of the scoring system is available here) (1st all-time is Ty Cobb, at 451)
1. Barry Bonds - 345
2. Roger Clemens - 326
3. Randy Johnson - 320
4. Alex Rodriguez - 266
5. Greg Maddux - 241
6. Ivan Rodriguez - 212
7. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 209
8. Mike Piazza - 205
9t. Roberto Alomar - 193
9t. Pedro Martinez - 193
11. Derek Jeter - 192
12. Sammy Sosa - 191
13. Rickey Henderson - 186
14. Frank Thomas - 184
15. Manny Ramirez - 182
16. Rafael Palmiero - 180
17. Mariano Rivera - 173
18. Curt Schilling - 167
19. Tom Glavine - 166
20. Vladimir Guerrero - 163
21. Todd Helton - 161
22. Albert Pujols - 154
23. Jeff Bagwell - 149
24. Larry Walker - 147
25t. Craig Biggio - 145
25t. Ichiro Suzuki - 145
27. John Smoltz - 142
28. Bernie Williams - 133
29t. Trevor Hoffman - 132
29t. Gary Sheffield - 132
31. Edgar Martinez - 131
32. Chipper Jones - 128
33. Jim Thome - 127
34. John Franco - 124
35t. Nomar Garciaparra - 120
35t. Juan Gonzalez - 120
37. Barry Larkin - 118
38. Andres Galarraga - 114
39. Mike Mussina - 109
40. Omar Vizquel - 108
41t. David Cone - 103
41t. Jeff Kent - 103
41t. Jose Mesa - 103
44t. Carlos Delgado - 100
44t. Andruw Jones - 100
44t. Fred McGriff - 100

Notable Current/Former Twins
Rod Carew - 242
Harmon Killebrew - 172
Paul Molitor - 165
Kirby Puckett - 155
Dave Winfield - 148
Jim Kaat - 129
Jack Morris - 122
Bert Blyleven - 120
Tony Oliva - 114
Jeff Reardon - 106
Rick Aguilera - 90
David Ortiz - 69
Frank Viola - 69
Chuck Knoblauch - 66
Kenny Rogers - 66
Bret Boone - 62
Jim Perry - 59
Ruben Sierra - 58
Johan Santana - 56
Mike Jackson - 52
Luis Castillo - 40
Eddie Guardado - 39
Jeff Cirillo - 37
Joe Nathan - 36
Shannon Stewart - 33
Joe Mauer - 30
Tony Batista - 26
Scott Erickson - 23
Phil Nevin - 23
Jose Offerman - 22
A.J. Pierzynski - 22
Torii Hunter - 20
Mark Guthrie - 19
Kent Hrbek - 19
Corey Koskie - 16
Justin Morneau - 16
Cristian Guzman - 14
Matt Lawton - 14
Terry Mulholland - 14
Rick Reed - 14
Brad Radke - 13
Marty Cordova - 11
LaTroy Hawkins - 9
Francisco Liriano - 6
Joe Mays - 6

The lowest score for any current HOF pitcher is Ted Lyons at 65. For a batter, Jake Beckley at 84. The lowest for a batter in the expansion era is Willie Stargell at 107, lowest pitcher is Bruce Sutter at 91. Ted Simmons was the highest score for a batter not enshrined in the Hall (and past Writers' Ballot eligibility) at 124, until Albert Belle was left off the ballot for 2008 with a score of 134. Pete Rose's score of 313 is not counted for practical purposes. Jim McCormick's score of 194 is the highest for a pitcher not enshrined, the highest for a pitcher from the expansion era is Jim Kaat, at 129.

HOF Standards (an explanation of the formula can be found here, note that there are no standards for relievers, explaining the low scores of Lee Smith and Goose Gossage that I reported yesterday) (1st all-time is Christy Mathewson at 84)
1. Barry Bonds - 75
2. Roger Clemens - 72
3. Greg Maddux - 68
4. Alex Rodriguez - 63
5. Randy Johnson - 62
6. Mike Piazza - 61
7t. Jeff Bagwell - 59
7t. Pedro Martinez - 59
7t. Frank Thomas - 59
10t. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 58
10t. Manny Ramirez - 58
12t. Rafael Palmiero - 57
12t. Gary Sheffield - 57
12t. Larry Walker - 57
15t. Roberto Alomar - 56
15t. Craig Biggio - 56
17. Ivan Rodriguez - 53
18. Rickey Henderson - 52
19. Derek Jeter - 51
20. Chipper Jones - 50
21t. Tom Glavine - 49
21t. Edgar Martinez - 49
23t. Mike Mussina - 48
23t. Jim Thome - 48
23t. Bernie Williams - 48
26t. Fred McGriff - 47
26t. Sammy Sosa - 47
28t. Jeff Kent - 46
28t. Barry Larkin - 46
28t. Tim Raines - 46
28t. Curt Schilling - 46
32t. Vladimir Guerrero - 44
32t. Todd Helton - 44
34. Nomar Garciaparra - 43
35. Luis Gonzalez - 42
36t. Moises Alou - 41
36t. Kevin Brown - 41
36t. Ellis Burks - 41
36t. Julio Franco - 41
36t. John Smoltz - 41
41. David Wells - 40
42t. David Cone - 39
42t. Jim Edmonds - 39
42t. Juan Gonzalez - 39
42t. Jason Kendall - 39
42t. Kenny Lofton - 39
47t. Lance Berkman - 38
47t. Carlos Delgado - 38
47t. Mark Grace - 38
47t. John Olerud - 38
47t. Albert Pujols - 38

Notable Current/Former Twins
Paul Molitor - 59
Dave Winfield - 55
Rod Carew - 54
Bert Blyleven - 50
Harmon Killebrew - 45
Jim Kaat - 44
Jack Morris - 39
Kirby Puckett - 38
Chili Davis - 38
Chuck Knoblauch - 33
Johan Santana - 33
Jim Perry - 32
Kenny Rogers - 30
Tony Oliva - 29
Joe Mauer - 28
Luis Castillo - 27
Ruben Sierra - 27
Bret Boone - 26
Kent Hrbek - 26
David Ortiz - 25
Jeff Cirillo - 23
Greg Myers - 23
Todd Walker - 21
Jose Offerman - 20
Phil Nevin - 19
Tony Batista - 18
Shannon Stewart - 18
Rondell White - 18
Torii Hunter - 16
Matt Lawton - 16
Justin Morneau - 15
Brad Radke - 15
Rick Reed - 12
Carlos Silva - 12
Mike Jackson - 11
Terry Mulholland - 9
Bob Wells - 9
Scott Erickson - 8
Eddie Guardado - 7
Eric Milton - 6
Hector Carrasco - 5

The highest score for an unenshrined, no-longer-eligible batter is 51 for George Van Haltren (the highest for an expansion era player is Ted Simmons' 44). Baseball-Reference only lists the top 200 scores, and Ozzie Smith is the lowest HOF batter on the page at 35. The lowest score for a HOF pitcher is Jessie Haynes at 27 (Catfish Hunter at 42 is the lowest of any pitcher to play the majority of his career in the expansion era). Jim McCormick's 51 is the highest score for an unenshrined, no-longer-eligible pitcher (the expansion-era high is Jim Kaat's 44).

What jumps out at me most after looking at these numbers, is that two Twins pitchers (Blyleven and Kaat) should easily be in the Hall by now. Blyleven's time on the ballot is running out, Kaat went off the ballot after the 2003 election. Somehow, Kaat's best year was 1993, when he received only 29.55% of the vote.

Finally, the first-timers on next year's ballot:
HOF Monitor
1. Robb Nen - 92
2. Tim Raines - 90
3. Chuck Knoblauch - 66.5
4. Chuck Finley - 53.5
5. David Justice - 43.5
6. Brady Anderson - 38
7. Travis Fryman - 36
8. Darryl Kile - 31
9. Mark Wohlers - 27
10. Andy Benes - 18
11. Shawon Dunston - 14
12t. Greg Swindell - 12
12t. Mike Morgan - 12
14. Randy Velarde - 11.5
15. Delino DeShields - 3

HOF Standards
1. Tim Raines - 46.8
2. Chuck Knoblauch - 33.7
3. David Justice - 28.7
4. Chuck Finley - 27
5. Travis Fryman - 26.3
6. Brady Anderson - 26.1
7. Delino DeShields - 25.2
8. Shawon Dunston - 19.1
9. Andy Benes - 19
10. Randy Velarde - 17.8
11. Robb Nen - 15
12. Greg Swindell -13
13. Darryl Kile - 12
14t. Mark Wohlers - 11
14t. Mike Morgan - 11

Tim Raines seems to be the only newcomer to the ballot with much of a chance to get in at any point. He won't be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but his speed will give him a chance.

That's all I have for the Hall (I think), so the huge lists will be gone for a while, and there will probably be some shorter posts the next few days.